Cross-Market Analytics

Layer 3 · reported-growth transmission, revision-cycle positioning, and reported-versus-forward comparisons

Raw correlation estimates720,680

Near-term candidates69,872

Long-cycle candidates68,442

A/B evidence22,309

Relationship priors26

1. Raw Sector correlation context

Association only. These heatmaps compare reported LTM YoY growth at t with the same metric at t+lag. They include the common economic cycle and are context—not proof of forecasting power.

2. Near-Term Industry and Sub-Industry Relationships — 1Q–4Q

This section excludes same-group persistence and contemporaneous 0Q relationships. It shows one strongest 1Q–4Q lag per ordered pair, requires at least 36 quarterly observations, and distinguishes Revenue → Revenue, Revenue → CapEx, CapEx → Revenue and CapEx → CapEx. Economic distance measures novelty, not confidence. Economic priors are horizon-specific; relationships outside a prior's expected lag range remain unreviewed in this section.

LevelRelationshipEconomic reviewClassificationEvidence

Relationship	Source	Lead	Target	r	Lead advantage	Cycle-adjusted r	Obs.	Evidence	Economic prior	Novelty	Assessment	Rationale

Click any table row to open its lead-aligned time series. Full outputs: correlations/lead_lag_discovery_near_term.csv, correlations/lead_lag_discovery.csv and correlations/raw_lagged_correlations.csv.

3. Long-Cycle Industry and Sub-Industry Relationships — 5Q–8Q

This section excludes same-group persistence and contemporaneous 0Q relationships. It shows one strongest 5Q–8Q lag per ordered pair, requires at least 36 quarterly observations, and distinguishes Revenue → Revenue, Revenue → CapEx, CapEx → Revenue and CapEx → CapEx. Economic distance measures novelty, not confidence. Economic priors are horizon-specific; relationships outside a prior's expected lag range remain unreviewed in this section.

LevelRelationshipEconomic reviewClassificationEvidence

Relationship	Source	Lead	Target	r	Lead advantage	Cycle-adjusted r	Obs.	Evidence	Economic prior	Novelty	Assessment	Rationale

Click any table row to open its lead-aligned time series. Full outputs: correlations/lead_lag_discovery_long_cycle.csv, correlations/lead_lag_discovery.csv and correlations/raw_lagged_correlations.csv.

4. Relationship-prior audit

The prior is an editable, analyst-defined economic map recorded independently of the observed correlations. “Expected + observed” confirms a known transmission; weak or mismatched results flag a possible change; strong unknown relationships become research candidates. Each prior is assessed against the discovery horizon overlapping its expected lag range.

Level	Metrics	Ordered pair	Relationship type	Expected sign / lag	Observed horizon	Prior confidence	Observed r	Assessment
Industry	CapEx → Revenue	Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels → Energy Equipment & Services	CapEx customer	+; 1Q–4Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.79	Expected but non-directional
Industry	CapEx → Revenue	Electric Utilities → Electrical Equipment	Infrastructure demand	+; 1Q–4Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.56	Expected but non-directional
Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Household Durables → Building Products	Customer demand	+; 1Q–2Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.79	Expected but non-directional
Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Construction Materials → Construction & Engineering	Upstream supplier	+; 1Q–3Q	Near-Term Relationships	Medium	0.57	Expected but non-directional
Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Automobiles → Automobile Components	Customer to supplier	+; 1Q–2Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.71	Expected but non-directional
Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Passenger Airlines → Aerospace & Defense	CapEx customer	+; 2Q–4Q	Near-Term Relationships	Low	0.51	Prior mismatch
Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure → Passenger Airlines	Shared end demand	+; 1Q–2Q	Near-Term Relationships	Medium	0.92	Expected but non-directional
Industry	CapEx → Revenue	Metals & Mining → Machinery	CapEx customer	+; 1Q–4Q	Near-Term Relationships	Medium	0.44	Expected but non-directional
Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Chemicals → Containers & Packaging	Input supplier	+; 1Q–3Q	Near-Term Relationships	Medium	0.58	Expected but non-directional
Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals → Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components	Customer demand	+; 1Q–3Q	Near-Term Relationships	Medium	0.84	Expected but non-directional
Sub Industry	CapEx → Revenue	Semiconductors → Semiconductor Materials & Equipment	CapEx customer	+; 1Q–4Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.53	Expected but non-directional
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Semiconductors → Semiconductor Materials & Equipment	Customer demand	+; 1Q–4Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.73	Confirmed prior
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Copper → Electrical Components & Equipment	Input supplier	+; 1Q–3Q	Near-Term Relationships	Medium	0.73	Expected but weak
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Homebuilding → Building Products	Customer demand	+; 1Q–2Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.55	Expected but non-directional
Sub Industry	CapEx → Revenue	Oil & Gas Exploration & Production → Oil & Gas Equipment & Services	CapEx customer	+; 1Q–4Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.82	Expected but non-directional
Sub Industry	CapEx → Revenue	Electric Utilities → Heavy Electrical Equipment	Infrastructure demand	+; 1Q–4Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.37	Expected but non-directional
Sub Industry	CapEx → Revenue	Data Center REITs → Electrical Components & Equipment	Infrastructure demand	+; 1Q–4Q	—	High	—	Insufficient eligible history
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Passenger Airlines → Airport Services	Customer demand	+; 1Q–2Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	0.95	Expected but weak
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Commodity Chemicals → Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials	Input supplier	+; 1Q–3Q	Near-Term Relationships	Medium	0.44	Expected but weak
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Steel → Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment	Shared industrial demand	+; 1Q–3Q	Near-Term Relationships	Low	0.51	Expected but non-directional
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Electronic Components → Electronic Manufacturing Services	Upstream supplier	+; 1Q–2Q	—	High	—	Insufficient eligible history
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Broadline Retail → Air Freight & Logistics	Customer demand	+; 1Q–2Q	Near-Term Relationships	Medium	0.83	Confirmed prior
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Homebuilding → Home Improvement Retail	Shared housing demand	+; 1Q–2Q	—	Medium	—	Insufficient eligible history
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Oil & Gas Exploration & Production → Oil & Gas Drilling	Customer demand	+; 1Q–3Q	—	High	—	Insufficient eligible history
Sub Industry	CapEx → Revenue	Renewable Electricity → Heavy Electrical Equipment	Infrastructure demand	+; 1Q–4Q	Near-Term Relationships	High	-0.43	Prior mismatch
Sub Industry	Revenue → Revenue	Semiconductors → Electronic Manufacturing Services	Customer demand	+; 1Q–3Q	—	Medium	—	Insufficient eligible history

The versioned input and complete audit are copied to correlations/relationship_priors.csv and correlations/relationship_prior_audit.csv.

5. Revision-cycle positioning

The horizontal coordinate is the current 12-month fixed-target consensus revision. The vertical coordinate is how that 12-month revision signal has changed over the latest three months. Phase labels are a transparent sign-and-slope heuristic, not a forecast.

Metric	Sector	12M revision	3M change	Phase	Matched companies
Capex	Communication Services	56.0%	+9.5pp	Uptrend — building	104
Capex	Consumer Discretionary	28.0%	+3.1pp	Uptrend — building	193
Capex	Consumer Staples	2.1%	-1.4pp	Uptrend — maturing	151
Capex	Energy	3.1%	-1.6pp	Uptrend — maturing	85
Capex	Financials	2.3%	+12.1pp	Upturn — early	108
Capex	Health Care	2.0%	-2.5pp	Uptrend — maturing	162
Capex	Industrials	3.8%	-0.2pp	Positive — stable	349
Capex	Information Technology	67.0%	+20.4pp	Uptrend — building	245
Capex	Materials	5.2%	-1.3pp	Uptrend — maturing	179
Capex	Real Estate	1.7%	-5.4pp	Uptrend — maturing	85
Capex	Utilities	12.4%	-2.4pp	Uptrend — maturing	125
Revenue	Communication Services	4.8%	-0.3pp	Uptrend — maturing	105
Revenue	Consumer Discretionary	-0.8%	-0.2pp	Negative — stable	193
Revenue	Consumer Staples	-0.3%	-1.1pp	Downturn — early	154
Revenue	Energy	9.2%	+2.9pp	Uptrend — building	88
Revenue	Financials	2.2%	-0.4pp	Uptrend — maturing	391
Revenue	Health Care	-0.2%	-0.9pp	Downturn — early	165
Revenue	Industrials	-0.2%	-0.4pp	Downturn — early	357
Revenue	Information Technology	31.4%	+11.6pp	Uptrend — building	249
Revenue	Materials	7.3%	+1.7pp	Uptrend — building	186
Revenue	Real Estate	-2.9%	-0.4pp	Downtrend — deepening	87
Revenue	Utilities	-0.8%	-1.4pp	Downturn — early	126

6. Reported nowcast vs. consensus forecast

Reported nowcast is endpoint-aligned same-company aggregate LTM growth. The forecast is the same companies' consensus 2-Year Forward CAGR, (24M / 0M)^(1/2) − 1. ACWI coverage uses the full point-in-time member-company denominator; reported-subset coverage is shown separately.

Metric	Sector	Reported LTM	2Y forward CAGR	Forward minus reported	Common companies	ACWI coverage	Reported-subset coverage
Capex	Communication Services	31.4%	18.5%	-12.9pp	88	76%	99%
Capex	Consumer Discretionary	17.3%	7.3%	-10.0pp	174	81%	94%
Capex	Consumer Staples	3.7%	2.4%	-1.3pp	143	90%	98%
Capex	Energy	1.5%	-1.6%	-3.1pp	82	89%	98%
Capex	Financials	5.2%	18.2%	+13.0pp	86	19%	28%
Capex	Health Care	11.6%	1.3%	-10.3pp	156	85%	98%
Capex	Industrials	7.9%	2.7%	-5.2pp	333	81%	96%
Capex	Information Technology	30.7%	20.6%	-10.1pp	239	74%	96%
Capex	Materials	0.7%	-2.0%	-2.6pp	178	81%	98%
Capex	Real Estate	23.5%	-12.9%	-36.4pp	78	86%	94%
Capex	Utilities	11.9%	6.0%	-5.9pp	122	93%	98%
Revenue	Communication Services	9.9%	7.9%	-2.0pp	102	88%	99%
Revenue	Consumer Discretionary	6.2%	7.0%	+0.7pp	194	91%	97%
Revenue	Consumer Staples	4.6%	4.7%	+0.1pp	146	92%	99%
Revenue	Energy	-1.7%	1.3%	+3.0pp	85	92%	99%
Revenue	Financials	6.0%	-3.1%	-9.1pp	372	82%	94%
Revenue	Health Care	9.4%	5.8%	-3.6pp	161	88%	98%
Revenue	Industrials	6.3%	6.7%	+0.4pp	352	86%	98%
Revenue	Information Technology	23.4%	23.8%	+0.3pp	248	77%	98%
Revenue	Materials	5.5%	5.4%	-0.1pp	180	82%	99%
Revenue	Real Estate	1.7%	3.3%	+1.6pp	88	97%	98%
Revenue	Utilities	4.2%	4.4%	+0.2pp	125	95%	99%

Methodology

Correlation inputs are quarterly reported LTM YoY growth from Layer 0, calculated from endpoint-aligned aggregate USD dollars. The raw matrix covers 0Q–8Q and all four Revenue/CapEx source-target combinations. Discovery suppresses same-group pairs and 0Q, requires 36 observations and retains one strongest absolute correlation per ordered pair separately within 1Q–4Q and 5Q–8Q. Keeping the windows separate limits horizon mixing and avoids selecting a single winner from an unnecessarily broad 1Q–8Q search. Lead advantage is |forward r| − max(|0Q r|, |reverse-direction r|). Evidence grades add one point each for sample eligibility, |r| ≥ 0.50, lead advantage ≥ 0.05, split-sample stability and persistence after removing static exposure to the matching ACWI ex-Financials cycle. Structural GICS distance is displayed as novelty and never raises the evidence grade. Relationship priors specify type, sign, lag and confidence independently of the statistics. Lead-aligned charts display source at t against target at t+lag shifted back to t; standardization is visual only and does not alter the reported correlations. None of these diagnostics establishes causality.

Revision cycles use exact-company fixed-target 12-month revisions. Reported-versus-forward comparisons join actual and consensus panels by stable Bloomberg company ID and observation month. Built 2026-07-17T09:07:53+00:00.