Consensus CapEx Cycle

MSCI ACWI point-in-time membership · current classification backcast · latest 14 Jul 2026

12M capex

$4,693bn

all 11 sectors

24M capex

$4,943bn

all 11 sectors

12M→24M growth

5.3%

all-sector forward growth

Covered securities

2,027

of 2,460 latest ACWI members

Name coverage

82.4%

strict FY1-FY3 calendarization

12M capex YoY

+27.4%

matched base, excluding Financials

Latest sector snapshot

Sector	12M capex	24M capex	Growth	Covered securities	Coverage
Communication Services	$948.3bn	$1,086.4bn	14.6%	116	98.3%
Information Technology	$805.1bn	$889.4bn	10.5%	310	94.8%
Utilities	$580.1bn	$597.4bn	3.0%	129	97.0%
Consumer Discretionary	$574.4bn	$592.1bn	3.1%	209	95.0%
Energy	$551.6bn	$542.5bn	-1.6%	95	96.9%
Industrials	$415.1bn	$424.1bn	2.2%	406	96.7%
Materials	$300.3bn	$288.1bn	-4.1%	219	96.5%
Consumer Staples	$170.1bn	$172.6bn	1.5%	159	98.1%
Financials	$163.6bn	$165.0bn	0.8%	121	25.3%
Health Care	$133.0bn	$134.3bn	0.9%	178	95.7%
Real Estate	$51.7bn	$51.2bn	-1.1%	85	93.4%

Low-coverage warning. Financials (25.3%) has less than 60% strict FY1-FY3 coverage. Financials is retained in level totals and sector diagnostics but excluded from the aggregate matched-base YoY signal.

Latest matched-base capex YoY signals

Aggregate	YoY	5Y z-score	Common securities
Global ex Financials	+27.4%	+2.91	1,699
Global ex Financials & hyperscalers	+11.1%	+1.23	1,694
China ex Financials	+10.8%	+0.68	354
India ex Financials	-2.6%	-1.77	103
Communication Services ex Alphabet & Meta	+5.7%	+1.08	101
Consumer Discretionary ex Amazon	+4.6%	-0.37	197
Magnificent Seven	+132.0%	+2.85	7
India ex Financials & Reliance	-2.2%	-1.28	102

Method. Bloomberg consensus capital expenditure is requested in USD, normalized to USD millions, and calendarized from FY1/FY2/FY3 into constant 12M and 24M horizons. Forward growth is dollar-aggregated. YoY compares 12M capex on the exact intersection of covered security IDs at both dates. The main aggregate YoY signal excludes Financials because latest strict sector coverage is below 60%. The hyperscaler-adjusted series additionally excludes Amazon, Alphabet (both GOOG and GOOGL security IDs), Meta, and Microsoft. Communication Services ex Alphabet/Meta removes GOOG, GOOGL, and META; Consumer Discretionary ex Amazon removes AMZN. The Magnificent Seven basket uses AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSLA, with one Alphabet share class to avoid double-counting the company; it starts in October 2014, the first matched date with all seven representatives. China and India are Bloomberg corporate country-of-risk aggregates and exclude Financials; the India ex-Reliance series additionally removes Reliance Industries (RELIANCE IN Equity). Country aggregates do not indicate the physical destination of investment. Z-scores use a trailing 60-month window with at least 24 observations, so they do not use future data. Large persistent changes are retained; only isolated reverting scale anomalies are excluded.

Universe counts. The latest point-in-time ACWI panel contains 2,460 constituent security IDs. Of these, 2,027 have valid FY1-FY3 estimates and period ends for strict calendarization. The broader 5,245 count in the run manifest is the union of historical member IDs encountered across the full 15-year window, not the number in the index on one date.

Classification limitation. Index membership is point-in-time. GICS and country metadata are current classifications joined to historical members by security ID, so historical reclassifications are not reconstructed.

Build quality: 77.4% of membership rows are strictly calendarizable; 359 isolated field anomalies were excluded.