ACWI ex Financials
Revenue 12M growth9.1%
Revenue 2-Year Forward CAGR8.3%
CapEx 12M growth13.1%
CapEx 2-Year Forward CAGR9.0%
CapEx/Sales 0M → 24M8.4% → 8.5%
Forward intensity change+11bp
Revenue growth signal+2.05σ
Common-company coverage94.7%
Growth horizon and sensitivity
Every figure in a row uses the same companies with valid CapEx and Revenue at 0M, 12M and 24M. The primary 2-Year Forward CAGR is annualized 0M→24M growth. Growth is calculated from aggregate dollars; median-company intensity and breadth remain secondary diagnostics.
| Scope | Revenue 12M growth | Revenue 2Y forward CAGR | Revenue next-year growth | CapEx 12M growth | CapEx 2Y forward CAGR | CapEx next-year growth | Intensity 0→24 | Relative intensity | Companies | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACWI ex Financials | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 9.0% | 5.0% | +11bp | 1.4% | 1,836 | 94.7% |
| Ex Financials & hyperscalers | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | -35bp | -4.7% | 1,832 | 94.7% |
Investment regime maps
X is each group’s Revenue 2-Year Forward CAGR—(24M / 0M)^(1/2) - 1—standardized against its own trailing five-year history. Y is the relative change in aggregate CapEx/Sales from 0M to 24M. Six-month arrows use the exact company intersection at both endpoints.
CapEx/Sales history
Absolute levels are ratios of aggregate dollars. Z-scores are calculated separately within each scope; raw levels are not compared across structurally different Industries.
Ex Financials & hyperscalers
Sector scorecard
Three-month changes use the exact six-leg company intersection at both endpoints. Top-one and top-three concentration are shares of aggregate 12M CapEx.
| Sector | Revenue 2Y forward CAGR | Revenue z | CapEx 2Y forward CAGR | C/S 0M | C/S 12M | C/S 24M | Intensity bp | Relative intensity | 3M Δ revenue z | 3M Δ intensity | Positive breadth | Companies | Coverage | Top 1 | Top 3 | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | 9.0% | +3.08σ | 22.5% | 19.2% | 23.3% | 24.2% | +502bp | 26.2% | +0.40σ | 2.5% | 41.1% | 112 | 96.6% | 30.7% | 61.4% | Expansion |
| Consumer Discretionary | 7.1% | -0.35σ | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | +4bp | 0.5% | -0.16σ | -4.0% | 38.1% | 197 | 92.1% | 40.0% | 49.2% | Capacity build / potential overinvestment |
| Consumer Staples | 4.7% | +0.45σ | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | -15bp | -4.4% | -0.18σ | -0.2% | 39.4% | 155 | 97.5% | 15.6% | 22.6% | Capital discipline |
| Energy | 1.4% | +0.27σ | -1.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | -48bp | -5.3% | -0.35σ | 4.5% | 32.6% | 89 | 96.7% | 11.1% | 25.1% | Capital discipline |
| Health Care | 5.5% | -0.68σ | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | -17bp | -6.8% | -0.33σ | 0.6% | 32.2% | 171 | 93.4% | 5.6% | 15.0% | Retrenchment |
| Industrials | 6.8% | +0.55σ | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | -37bp | -7.0% | -0.28σ | 4.5% | 37.4% | 390 | 95.4% | 2.0% | 5.9% | Capital discipline |
| Information Technology | 24.4% | +3.07σ | 21.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | -46bp | -4.7% | -0.11σ | 0.0% | 21.7% | 304 | 94.1% | 24.2% | 44.6% | Capital discipline |
| Materials | 5.6% | +1.32σ | -1.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | -121bp | -13.3% | -0.70σ | 0.8% | 27.0% | 211 | 95.9% | 3.8% | 11.3% | Capital discipline |
| Real Estate | 2.8% | -0.52σ | -13.7% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | -359bp | -29.5% | +0.16σ | 8.8% | 28.4% | 81 | 89.0% | 8.5% | 22.9% | Retrenchment |
| Utilities | 4.3% | +1.15σ | 6.1% | 28.6% | 29.8% | 29.6% | +100bp | 3.5% | -0.22σ | -0.1% | 49.2% | 126 | 96.2% | 5.5% | 11.8% | Expansion |
Sector CapEx/Sales panels
Communication Services
Expansion
Consumer Discretionary
Capacity build / potential overinvestment
Consumer Staples
Capital discipline
Energy
Capital discipline
Health Care
Retrenchment
Industrials
Capital discipline
Information Technology
Capital discipline
Materials
Capital discipline
Real Estate
Retrenchment
Utilities
Expansion
Regime-transition summary
Each historical comparison recomputes both endpoints on the exact intersection of issuers with all six required fields.
| Sector | Current | 3M ago | 6M ago | 12M ago | Minimum common companies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion | 101 |
| Consumer Discretionary | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Retrenchment | Retrenchment | 181 |
| Consumer Staples | Capital discipline | Capital discipline | Retrenchment | Capital discipline | 148 |
| Energy | Capital discipline | Capital discipline | Retrenchment | Retrenchment | 83 |
| Health Care | Retrenchment | Retrenchment | Retrenchment | Capital discipline | 160 |
| Industrials | Capital discipline | Capital discipline | Retrenchment | Retrenchment | 343 |
| Information Technology | Capital discipline | Capital discipline | Capital discipline | Capital discipline | 241 |
| Materials | Capital discipline | Capital discipline | Capital discipline | Capital discipline | 178 |
| Real Estate | Capital discipline | Retrenchment | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Retrenchment | 70 |
| Utilities | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion | Capital discipline | 117 |
Industries crossing the capacity-build / potential-overinvestment quadrant
| Sector | Industry | Window | Prior regime | Current regime | Common companies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | Broadline Retail | 3M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Expansion | 19 |
| Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | 3M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Retrenchment | 17 |
| Consumer Staples | Tobacco | 3M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Capital discipline | 9 |
| Industrials | Passenger Airlines | 3M | Retrenchment | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | 16 |
| Materials | Containers & Packaging | 3M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Retrenchment | 8 |
| Consumer Discretionary | Broadline Retail | 6M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Expansion | 21 |
| Consumer Staples | Personal Care Products | 6M | Retrenchment | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | 15 |
| Consumer Staples | Tobacco | 6M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Capital discipline | 9 |
| Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates | 6M | Capital discipline | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | 25 |
| Real Estate | Real Estate Management & Development | 6M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Retrenchment | 42 |
| Utilities | Gas Utilities | 6M | Retrenchment | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | 15 |
| Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | 12M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Expansion | 13 |
| Consumer Staples | Household Products | 12M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Capital discipline | 10 |
| Real Estate | Real Estate Management & Development | 12M | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | Retrenchment | 43 |
| Utilities | Gas Utilities | 12M | Retrenchment | Capacity build / potential overinvestment | 14 |
Industry scorecard and drill-down
Industries require at least 5 latest common companies, 60 valid months and 70% company coverage. Excluded groups remain in the downloadable coverage audit.
| Sector | Industry | Revenue CAGR | Revenue z | CapEx CAGR | Intensity bp | Relative intensity | 3M Δ revenue z | Positive breadth | Companies | Coverage | Top 3 | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | Diversified Telecommunication Services | 5.8% | +3.45σ | 20.7% | +535bp | 30.2% | -0.60σ | 29.4% | 34 | 97.1% | 52.1% | Expansion |
| Communication Services | Entertainment | 7.7% | -0.67σ | 2.0% | -45bp | -10.3% | -0.20σ | 24.1% | 29 | 96.7% | 72.9% | Retrenchment |
| Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | 16.7% | +1.68σ | 30.8% | +836bp | 25.5% | +1.17σ | 71.4% | 14 | 93.3% | 98.1% | Expansion |
| Communication Services | Media | 2.7% | -0.28σ | -10.5% | -216bp | -24.0% | -0.76σ | 44.4% | 9 | 90.0% | 90.5% | Retrenchment |
| Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | 5.3% | +0.97σ | 2.5% | -71bp | -5.2% | -0.73σ | 57.7% | 26 | 100.0% | 33.8% | Capital discipline |
| Consumer Discretionary | Automobile Components | 4.1% | -1.09σ | 2.6% | -15bp | -2.8% | -0.53σ | 31.8% | 22 | 88.0% | 35.7% | Retrenchment |
| Consumer Discretionary | Automobiles | 5.5% | -0.80σ | -1.9% | -89bp | -13.6% | -0.42σ | 18.9% | 37 | 86.0% | 35.5% | Retrenchment |
| Consumer Discretionary | Broadline Retail | 12.2% | +0.11σ | 16.9% | +121bp | 8.7% | +0.32σ | 38.1% | 21 | 91.3% | 96.5% | Expansion |
| Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | 8.3% | -0.78σ | 6.7% | -16bp | -2.8% | -0.08σ | 48.8% | 41 | 95.3% | 36.1% | Retrenchment |
| Consumer Discretionary | Household Durables | 4.1% | -0.01σ | 1.5% | -14bp | -4.9% | -0.18σ | 53.3% | 15 | 93.8% | 62.8% | Retrenchment |
| Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | 5.9% | +0.40σ | 3.0% | -18bp | -5.3% | -0.22σ | 39.4% | 33 | 97.1% | 33.8% | Capital discipline |
| Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | 7.3% | -0.57σ | 6.4% | -8bp | -1.8% | -0.33σ | 45.0% | 20 | 90.9% | 58.1% | Retrenchment |
| Consumer Staples | Beverages | 5.7% | -0.57σ | 1.6% | -41bp | -7.5% | -0.33σ | 25.0% | 32 | 97.0% | 34.9% | Retrenchment |
| Consumer Staples | Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail | 4.9% | +1.12σ | 3.3% | -10bp | -3.1% | -0.24σ | 39.5% | 38 | 97.4% | 47.6% | Capital discipline |
| Consumer Staples | Food Products | 4.4% | -0.15σ | 0.7% | -24bp | -6.9% | -0.40σ | 43.1% | 51 | 96.2% | 25.3% | Retrenchment |
| Consumer Staples | Household Products | 3.7% | +1.25σ | 2.7% | -8bp | -1.9% | -0.54σ | 60.0% | 10 | 100.0% | 68.4% | Capital discipline |
| Consumer Staples | Personal Care Products | 4.4% | -0.66σ | 5.8% | +9bp | 2.7% | -0.49σ | 46.7% | 15 | 100.0% | 65.6% | Capacity build / potential overinvestment |
| Consumer Staples | Tobacco | 2.2% | +0.68σ | 2.0% | -1bp | -0.3% | +0.74σ | 33.3% | 9 | 100.0% | 71.8% | Capital discipline |
| Energy | Energy Equipment & Services | 6.4% | -0.46σ | 1.7% | -50bp | -8.6% | +0.55σ | 22.2% | 9 | 100.0% | 59.4% | Retrenchment |
| Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | 1.3% | +0.27σ | -1.4% | -47bp | -5.2% | -0.36σ | 33.8% | 80 | 96.4% | 25.5% | Capital discipline |
| Health Care | Biotechnology | 9.2% | +1.30σ | 7.5% | -10bp | -3.1% | -0.09σ | 37.0% | 27 | 81.8% | 55.8% | Capital discipline |
| Health Care | Health Care Equipment & Supplies | 7.1% | +0.77σ | 6.1% | -8bp | -1.9% | -0.47σ | 34.3% | 35 | 97.2% | 32.2% | Capital discipline |
| Health Care | Health Care Providers & Services | 5.0% | -2.28σ | 4.8% | -0bp | -0.3% | +0.02σ | 42.9% | 28 | 96.6% | 45.9% | Retrenchment |
| Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | 8.6% | +1.10σ | 1.2% | -96bp | -13.2% | -0.12σ | 18.2% | 22 | 100.0% | 40.4% | Capital discipline |
| Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | 5.1% | +0.20σ | -1.3% | -71bp | -11.8% | -0.18σ | 29.8% | 57 | 93.4% | 31.5% | Capital discipline |
| Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | 10.4% | +1.68σ | 8.3% | -15bp | -3.6% | -0.49σ | 33.3% | 42 | 95.5% | 29.2% | Capital discipline |
| Industrials | Air Freight & Logistics | 5.8% | +0.77σ | 4.9% | -6bp | -1.7% | -0.39σ | 42.9% | 14 | 100.0% | 59.4% | Capital discipline |
| Industrials | Building Products | 4.8% | +0.33σ | 3.6% | -9bp | -2.2% | -0.48σ | 36.8% | 19 | 100.0% | 54.0% | Capital discipline |
| Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | 4.7% | -1.32σ | 3.8% | -15bp | -1.7% | -0.54σ | 46.7% | 15 | 83.3% | 49.0% | Retrenchment |
| Industrials | Construction & Engineering | 4.3% | -1.33σ | -0.6% | -26bp | -9.2% | -0.37σ | 29.0% | 31 | 100.0% | 48.3% | Retrenchment |
| Industrials | Electrical Equipment | 14.9% | +1.48σ | -2.9% | -180bp | -28.5% | +0.09σ | 17.5% | 63 | 98.4% | 30.6% | Capital discipline |
| Industrials | Ground Transportation | 6.6% | -0.58σ | 4.1% | -57bp | -4.6% | +0.11σ | 40.9% | 22 | 95.7% | 36.4% | Retrenchment |
| Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates | 3.1% | -0.40σ | 3.9% | +8bp | 1.7% | -0.80σ | 36.0% | 25 | 92.6% | 44.1% | Capacity build / potential overinvestment |
| Industrials | Machinery | 8.1% | +1.82σ | 0.4% | -52bp | -13.7% | +0.10σ | 35.6% | 73 | 96.1% | 21.9% | Capital discipline |
| Industrials | Marine Transportation | 0.4% | +0.84σ | -0.5% | -18bp | -1.7% | -0.03σ | 54.5% | 11 | 84.6% | 57.6% | Capital discipline |
| Industrials | Passenger Airlines | 5.7% | -0.82σ | 8.6% | +58bp | 5.5% | -0.01σ | 62.5% | 16 | 84.2% | 37.4% | Capacity build / potential overinvestment |
| Industrials | Professional Services | 6.2% | +0.99σ | 9.2% | +15bp | 5.8% | +0.05σ | 52.6% | 19 | 100.0% | 37.2% | Expansion |
| Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | 3.1% | +0.11σ | -1.7% | -50bp | -9.2% | -0.85σ | 45.5% | 22 | 95.7% | 40.3% | Capital discipline |
| Industrials | Transportation Infrastructure | 7.2% | -0.59σ | 15.0% | +264bp | 15.2% | -0.16σ | 66.7% | 18 | 94.7% | 46.9% | Capacity build / potential overinvestment |
| Information Technology | Communications Equipment | 17.2% | +3.61σ | 8.8% | -39bp | -13.7% | +0.03σ | 10.5% | 19 | 82.6% | 45.2% | Capital discipline |
| Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | 24.0% | +2.46σ | -0.8% | -196bp | -36.0% | +0.03σ | 14.9% | 67 | 95.7% | 21.0% | Capital discipline |
| Information Technology | IT Services | 8.4% | +1.33σ | 23.1% | +220bp | 28.9% | -1.08σ | 72.7% | 33 | 100.0% | 82.9% | Expansion |
| Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | 37.0% | +3.07σ | 18.7% | -304bp | -24.9% | -0.09σ | 7.8% | 102 | 96.2% | 61.7% | Capital discipline |
| Information Technology | Software | 19.2% | +3.00σ | 31.3% | +603bp | 21.4% | -0.35σ | 35.3% | 51 | 89.5% | 94.3% | Expansion |
| Information Technology | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 20.2% | +3.01σ | 17.2% | -22bp | -5.0% | +0.01σ | 12.5% | 32 | 94.1% | 80.0% | Capital discipline |
| Materials | Chemicals | 5.6% | +0.64σ | -2.7% | -128bp | -15.1% | -0.16σ | 29.9% | 77 | 97.5% | 19.8% | Capital discipline |
| Materials | Construction Materials | 6.4% | +1.32σ | 2.6% | -56bp | -6.9% | -0.65σ | 25.0% | 16 | 94.1% | 39.2% | Capital discipline |
| Materials | Containers & Packaging | 3.8% | -0.25σ | 2.2% | -18bp | -2.9% | -0.22σ | 37.5% | 8 | 100.0% | 67.1% | Retrenchment |
| Materials | Metals & Mining | 5.7% | +1.46σ | -1.6% | -129bp | -13.4% | -0.80σ | 25.7% | 105 | 94.6% | 18.3% | Capital discipline |
| Materials | Paper & Forest Products | 5.8% | +0.78σ | -8.2% | -295bp | -24.7% | -0.67σ | 0.0% | 5 | 100.0% | 86.4% | Capital discipline |
| Real Estate | Diversified REITs | 5.3% | +2.44σ | -38.3% | -1,528bp | -65.7% | +1.31σ | 0.0% | 5 | 83.3% | 85.8% | Capital discipline |
| Real Estate | Real Estate Management & Development | 1.6% | -0.72σ | 0.3% | -16bp | -2.4% | +0.09σ | 42.2% | 45 | 90.0% | 32.6% | Retrenchment |
| Real Estate | Residential REITs | 1.9% | -1.32σ | -43.9% | -1,661bp | -69.7% | -1.00σ | 0.0% | 5 | 83.3% | 68.4% | Retrenchment |
| Real Estate | Retail REITs | 2.2% | -0.42σ | -32.3% | -1,249bp | -56.1% | -0.13σ | 11.1% | 9 | 100.0% | 59.1% | Retrenchment |
| Real Estate | Specialized REITs | 6.5% | +1.23σ | -5.6% | -551bp | -21.3% | +0.39σ | 20.0% | 10 | 90.9% | 75.3% | Capital discipline |
| Utilities | Electric Utilities | 4.0% | +1.27σ | 8.3% | +262bp | 8.4% | -0.26σ | 61.8% | 55 | 98.2% | 21.1% | Expansion |
| Utilities | Gas Utilities | 2.4% | -0.60σ | 5.1% | +59bp | 5.4% | -0.81σ | 43.8% | 16 | 94.1% | 44.8% | Capacity build / potential overinvestment |
| Utilities | Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers | 5.5% | +0.75σ | -3.2% | -561bp | -15.9% | -0.27σ | 23.3% | 30 | 90.9% | 28.1% | Capital discipline |
| Utilities | Multi-Utilities | 4.7% | +1.30σ | 8.4% | +183bp | 7.2% | +0.06σ | 65.0% | 20 | 100.0% | 33.8% | Expansion |
| Utilities | Water Utilities | 7.0% | +0.37σ | 9.3% | +234bp | 4.4% | +0.58σ | 20.0% | 5 | 100.0% | 76.2% | Expansion |
Communication Services 5 eligible Industries
Diversified Telecommunication Services
Expansion
Entertainment
Retrenchment
Interactive Media & Services
Expansion
Media
Retrenchment
Wireless Telecommunication Services
Capital discipline
Consumer Discretionary 7 eligible Industries
Automobile Components
Retrenchment
Automobiles
Retrenchment
Broadline Retail
Expansion
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Retrenchment
Household Durables
Retrenchment
Specialty Retail
Capital discipline
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
Retrenchment
Consumer Staples 6 eligible Industries
Beverages
Retrenchment
Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Capital discipline
Food Products
Retrenchment
Household Products
Capital discipline
Personal Care Products
Capacity build / potential overinvestment
Tobacco
Capital discipline
Energy 2 eligible Industries
Energy Equipment & Services
Retrenchment
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Capital discipline
Health Care 5 eligible Industries
Biotechnology
Capital discipline
Health Care Equipment & Supplies
Capital discipline
Health Care Providers & Services
Retrenchment
Life Sciences Tools & Services
Capital discipline
Pharmaceuticals
Capital discipline
Industrials 14 eligible Industries
Aerospace & Defense
Capital discipline
Air Freight & Logistics
Capital discipline
Building Products
Capital discipline
Commercial Services & Supplies
Retrenchment
Construction & Engineering
Retrenchment
Electrical Equipment
Capital discipline
Ground Transportation
Retrenchment
Industrial Conglomerates
Capacity build / potential overinvestment
Machinery
Capital discipline
Marine Transportation
Capital discipline
Passenger Airlines
Capacity build / potential overinvestment
Professional Services
Expansion
Trading Companies & Distributors
Capital discipline
Transportation Infrastructure
Capacity build / potential overinvestment
Information Technology 6 eligible Industries
Communications Equipment
Capital discipline
Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components
Capital discipline
IT Services
Expansion
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Capital discipline
Software
Expansion
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Capital discipline
Materials 5 eligible Industries
Chemicals
Capital discipline
Construction Materials
Capital discipline
Containers & Packaging
Retrenchment
Metals & Mining
Capital discipline
Paper & Forest Products
Capital discipline
Real Estate 5 eligible Industries
Diversified REITs
Capital discipline
Real Estate Management & Development
Retrenchment
Residential REITs
Retrenchment
Retail REITs
Retrenchment
Specialized REITs
Capital discipline
Utilities 5 eligible Industries
Electric Utilities
Expansion
Gas Utilities
Capacity build / potential overinvestment
Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Capital discipline
Multi-Utilities
Expansion
Water Utilities
Expansion
Methodology and coverage controls
Six-leg issuer basket. Every primary measure requires CapEx and Revenue 0M, 12M and 24M for the same Bloomberg company ID and observation month. CapEx is sampled on the 14th and Revenue on the 15th; both source dates are retained and the join fails when their gap exceeds 3 days. 0M is a synthetic calendarized current annual base, not reported LTM or FY0.
Aggregation. Growth and CapEx/Sales are ratios of matched-company aggregate USD dollars. Median-company change and positive-company breadth are secondary statistics. For 3M, 6M and 12M transitions, both dates are recomputed on their exact company intersection.
Financials. Financials is audit-only because only 116 of 453 current companies have the full six-leg panel (25.6% coverage). It is excluded from regime maps, classification and headline results.
Aggregation. Growth and CapEx/Sales are ratios of matched-company aggregate USD dollars. Median-company change and positive-company breadth are secondary statistics. For 3M, 6M and 12M transitions, both dates are recomputed on their exact company intersection.
Financials. Financials is audit-only because only 116 of 453 current companies have the full six-leg panel (25.6% coverage). It is excluded from regime maps, classification and headline results.