AI and cloud orders reached €2.4B and Optical Networks sales grew 17%. Mobile Networks returned to 6% growth with 40.1% gross margin. The 2026 profit midpoint and Network Infrastructure growth guide were below Street expectations.
[AS-046]2026 comparable operating profit was €2.0–2.5B; Network Infrastructure growth was 6–8% versus consensus near 8.9%.
[AS-046]The guide implied growth but left substantial upside dependent on order conversion and a familiar second-half weighting.
[AS-046]The stock initially fell on conservative guidance, then rallied as investors focused on AI orders and raised broker targets.
[MKT-001]AI and cloud orders reached €2.4B and Optical Networks sales grew 17%. Mobile Networks returned to 6% growth with 40.1% gross margin. The 2026 profit midpoint and Network Infrastructure growth guide were below Street expectations.
AI and cloud orders reached €2.4B and Optical Networks sales grew 17%.
Mobile Networks returned to 6% growth with 40.1% gross margin.
The 2026 profit midpoint and Network Infrastructure growth guide were below Street expectations.
2026 comparable operating profit was €2.0–2.5B; Network Infrastructure growth was 6–8% versus consensus near 8.9%.
| Metric | Prior | Latest | Consensus | Delta | Status | Reason / implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 comparable operating profit | 2025 range €1.7–2.2B | €2.0–2.5B | Midpoint above €2.25B | Higher year over year | New | Growth and portfolio mixMidpoint below Street |
| Network Infrastructure growth | 2025 recovery | 6–8% | Approximately 8.9% | New formal range | New | Prudent conversion assumptionsBelow Street |
| Optical Networks growth | Strong 2025 exit | Double-digit expected | Not consistently available | Positive | Directional | AI and cloud demandPrimary growth engine |
| Free cash flow conversion | 55–85% long-run | Within long-run range | Not consistently available | No change | Reiterated | Cash disciplineWorking-capital normalization required |
| Back-half profit weighting | Seasonal pattern | Still second-half weighted | Not applicable | No change | Directional | Licensing and seasonalityQ4 remains largest quarter |
The environment supported higher future revenue but embedded near-term investment, capacity and gross-margin headwinds in the annual guide.
The guide implied growth but left substantial upside dependent on order conversion and a familiar second-half weighting.
The stock initially fell on conservative guidance, then rallied as investors focused on AI orders and raised broker targets.
The stock initially fell about 6%, then gained roughly 20% through mid-February.
| Window | Stock | vs benchmark | vs peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | -8.9% | -7.8% | -8.0% |
| 2D | -4.2% | -3.0% | -3.7% |
| 5D | +2.3% | +0.5% | -0.4% |
AI and Cloud demand accelerated, while capacity constraints and a seasonally softer telecom first quarter limited near-term conversion.
"Supportive demand environment as we enter 2026"; strong AI/cloud demand across optical and IP
Book-to-bill above 1 across optical and IP; ~€900m Q4 AI/cloud order intake
North America NI strong; Japan/Indonesia grew, India/Greater China declined; two divergent cycles
No specific channel/inventory commentary provided on the call
Supply constraints "normal with this kind of scale"; consistently constrained infrastructure build
Memory "not a huge part of our bill of materials"; new fab critical to future output
No specific competitor commentary offered on the call; positioning framed around differentiation and portfolio breadth
Rising memory cost "expect this to be passed through to pricing"; a market-wide effect Nokia will "address"
Consensus snapshots are reconstructed from contemporaneous broker notes; the flattened AlphaSense export does not preserve stable document URLs.
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