The operating-profit range fell to €1.6–2.1B from €1.9–2.4B. Management attributed the entire reduction to about €230M of FX and €50–80M of tariffs. Mobile Networks sales fell 13%, while Optical Networks maintained book-to-bill above one.
[AS-044]The annual profit range was cut €300M at both ends to €1.6–2.1B; the bridge implied Q4 profit above €1B.
[AS-044]The range remained heavily Q4-weighted, but the cut was technical and external rather than an operating reset.
[AS-044]The initial fall reflected the headline cut; the reversal reflected the transparent FX/tariff bridge and intact optical order book.
[MKT-001]The operating-profit range fell to €1.6–2.1B from €1.9–2.4B. Management attributed the entire reduction to about €230M of FX and €50–80M of tariffs. Mobile Networks sales fell 13%, while Optical Networks maintained book-to-bill above one.
The operating-profit range fell to €1.6–2.1B from €1.9–2.4B.
Management attributed the entire reduction to about €230M of FX and €50–80M of tariffs.
Mobile Networks sales fell 13%, while Optical Networks maintained book-to-bill above one.
The annual profit range was cut €300M at both ends to €1.6–2.1B; the bridge implied Q4 profit above €1B.
| Metric | Prior | Latest | Consensus | Delta | Status | Reason / implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 comparable operating profit | €1.9–2.4B | €1.6–2.1B | Not consistently available | -€300M at both ends | Lowered | FX and tariffsQ4 profit above €1B required |
| FX impact | Not fully embedded | Approximately -€230M | Not applicable | New quantified headwind | Lowered | US dollar movementMost of guide cut |
| Tariff impact | €20–30M Q2 indication | €50–80M FY | Not applicable | Broadened | Lowered | US trade policyAdditional guide reduction |
| Optical Networks book-to-bill | Above 1 | Above 1 | Not consistently available | No change | Reiterated | Data-center ordersSupports later growth |
| Q4 operating-profit requirement | Large | More than €1B implied | Not applicable | Still demanding | Calculated | Annual range less H1 and Q3 assumptionsHighly back-end weighted |
The environment supported a stronger second-half Network Infrastructure ramp but reduced near-term gross margin and profit through tariffs and supply constraints.
The range remained heavily Q4-weighted, but the cut was technical and external rather than an operating reset.
The initial fall reflected the headline cut; the reversal reflected the transparent FX/tariff bridge and intact optical order book.
Much of the shock occurred when the cut was pre-announced before the formal 24 July release. From the last unaffected session before the formal release, Nokia fell 1.2% on day one and 4.3% through day five; it later recovered by the next print.
| Window | Stock | vs benchmark | vs peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | -1.2% | -2.4% | -0.5% |
| 2D | -2.5% | -3.9% | -0.9% |
| 5D | -4.3% | -4.5% | -1.5% |
AI and hyperscaler orders accelerated, but optical supply constraints, tariffs and regional Mobile Networks weakness delayed revenue conversion.
Hyperscalers were "one of the biggest drivers of order intake," 5% of group net sales in Q2; first 800G ZR/ZR+ pluggable award from a US hyperscaler
Group and Optical book-to-bill "well above 1," and would have remained so even after fulfilling all orders at historical conversion rates
NA declined on the prior-year MN settlement; India MN paused (sales flat); Infinera diluted NI EBIT €20mn but Optical book-to-bill well above 1
Asked about pull-in orders, management indicated order intake tracked a "fairly normal evolution"; customers "largely continuing with the plans they laid out"
Optical growth "hampered by some modest supply chain constraints" and could have grown over 10% vs the 6% reported; expected to improve in H2
Now expect €50–80mn FY tariff hit tied to fulfilment of pre-existing orders; 110bps gross-margin drag absorbed in NI in Q2
Asked directly about a Nordic peer flagging stronger RAN price competition, management said pricing was not "abnormal" and depends on the individual opportunity
Management saw "nothing abnormal" in pricing dynamics across regions
The guidance reduction was partly pre-announced before the formal 24 July release. The standardized return window begins from the last unaffected session immediately before the formal release and therefore does not capture the entire initial shock.
AlphaSense synthesis
Open source ↗Official company source
Open source ↗AlphaSense market-environment synthesis
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