Consumer postpaid phone losses of 356,000 were worse than the de-risked consensus. Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $12.6 billion and FCF of $3.6 billion beat strongly. Management reiterated all guidance despite the early financial cushion.
[AS-011]All six 2025 financial ranges were reiterated; no subscriber or financial upgrade accompanied the beat.
[AS-011]The strong first quarter created a cushion, implying slower remaining-year WSR and EBITDA growth rather than a needed acceleration.
[AS-011]The subscriber loss drove the initial weakness, while EBITDA and FCF enabled an intraday recovery.
[MKT-001]Consumer postpaid phone losses of 356,000 were worse than the de-risked consensus. Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $12.6 billion and FCF of $3.6 billion beat strongly. Management reiterated all guidance despite the early financial cushion.
Consumer postpaid phone losses of 356,000 were worse than the de-risked consensus.
Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $12.6 billion and FCF of $3.6 billion beat strongly.
Management reiterated all guidance despite the early financial cushion.
All six 2025 financial ranges were reiterated; no subscriber or financial upgrade accompanied the beat.
| Metric | Prior | Latest | Consensus | Delta | Status | Reason / implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless service revenue growth | 2.0–2.8% | 2.0–2.8% | Approximately 2.5% | No change | Reiterated | Pricing, FWA and mix; prepaid recovery needed laterRemaining-year growth approximately 2.3% after Q1 at 2.7% |
| Adjusted EBITDA growth | 2.0–3.5% | 2.0–3.5% | Approximately 2.5–3.2% | No change | Reiterated | Cost transformation and wireless service growthRemaining-year growth approximately 2.3% after Q1 at 4% |
| Adjusted EPS growth | 0–3.0% | 0–3.0% | Approximately $4.72–4.74 | No change | Reiterated below Street | Higher depreciation offsets EBITDA growthApproximately $4.66 midpoint remains below consensus |
| Cash flow from operations | $35.0–37.0B | $35.0–37.0B | Approximately $36B | No change | Reiterated | Strong Q1 cash generation builds cushionApproximately $28.2B required for Q2–Q4 at midpoint |
| Capital expenditures | $17.5–18.5B | $17.5–18.5B | Approximately $18.0–18.1B | No change | Reiterated | Back-half C-band and fiber spendingApproximately $13.9B required for Q2–Q4 at midpoint |
| Free cash flow | $17.5–18.5B | $17.5–18.5B | Approximately $18.0–18.1B | No change | Reiterated | EBITDA improvement and capex disciplineApproximately $14.4B required for Q2–Q4 at midpoint |
Pricing supported service revenue, while higher churn and acquisition costs shifted the recovery requirement into the second half.
The strong first quarter created a cushion, implying slower remaining-year WSR and EBITDA growth rather than a needed acceleration.
The subscriber loss drove the initial weakness, while EBITDA and FCF enabled an intraday recovery.
A 0.6% first-day gain turned into a 1.3% loss after five sessions.
| Window | Stock | vs benchmark | vs peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | +0.6% | -1.9% | -1.5% |
| 2D | -0.5% | -4.8% | -3.3% |
| 5D | -1.3% | -8.4% | +0.3% |
Gross demand improved sharply, but price-related churn and persistent promotions delayed the subscriber recovery.
March gross adds up mid-single digits, April up double digits, "continuing in Q2" on Verizon Value Guarantee resonance
"In Q1, we saw a higher elasticity than we had forecasted… limited to those cohorts"; churn to abate and return to BAU in H2
Q1 "soft," slightly down y/y; "we didn't chase volumes where there was no demand"; FY mid-single-digit upgrade growth reiterated
Only a low-single-digit-$B slice of ~$18B capex exposed; "no COVID supply chain impact"; won't cover handset tariff increases
339K broadband adds in Q1; MDU solution launched in 50+ markets; Fios build "slightly ahead of schedule," cost per prem passed down ~10% y/y
Competitors "did not pull back" on holiday promos and "doubled down… carried it through the whole of first quarter"; Q2 intensity "quite similar" to Q1
Dec + Jan back-book price-ups plus insurance re-pricing will yield ~$1.1B of 2025 revenue; "no second doubt that decision… the right decision"
The S&P benchmark was incomplete in the AS output and has been recomputed here.
AlphaSense synthesis
Open source ↗Official company source
Open source ↗AlphaSense market-environment synthesis
Open source ↗