Adjusted EPS of $1.65 was more than twice consensus near $0.68–0.74. R&M adjusted EBITDA reached $1.38B as 99% capture beat expectations near 90%. The board added $5B of repurchase capacity, while Midstream EBITDA of $1.60B missed expectations.
[AS-032]Q2 total throughput was 2,990 mbpd at 94% utilization, with $300M turnaround cost and $5.65/bbl operating cost; FY turnaround cost stayed $1.35B.
[AS-032]Lower turnaround intensity plus elevated cracks implied a sharp sequential earnings acceleration, with the derivative headwind potentially reversing.
[AS-032]The first-day gain reflected capture quality, the buyback and a cleaner Q2; the move later became more dependent on crack strength.
[MKT-001]Adjusted EPS of $1.65 was more than twice consensus near $0.68–0.74. R&M adjusted EBITDA reached $1.38B as 99% capture beat expectations near 90%. The board added $5B of repurchase capacity, while Midstream EBITDA of $1.60B missed expectations.
Adjusted EPS of $1.65 was more than twice consensus near $0.68–0.74.
R&M adjusted EBITDA reached $1.38B as 99% capture beat expectations near 90%.
The board added $5B of repurchase capacity, while Midstream EBITDA of $1.60B missed expectations.
Q2 total throughput was 2,990 mbpd at 94% utilization, with $300M turnaround cost and $5.65/bbl operating cost; FY turnaround cost stayed $1.35B.
| Metric | Prior | Latest | Consensus | Delta | Status | Reason / implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total throughput | 2,740 mbpd | 2,990 mbpd | Approximately 2,990 mbpd | +250 mbpd | New Q2 guide | Maintenance roll-offIn line |
| Crude utilization | Approximately 85% | 94% | Approximately 94% | +900bp | New Q2 guide | Operational reboundIn line |
| Turnaround cost | $465M | $300M | Not consistently available | -$165M | New Q2 guide | Front-loaded maintenance completeLower profit drag |
| Operating cost | $5.85/bbl | $5.65/bbl | Not consistently available | -$0.20/bbl | New Q2 guide | Higher runsBetter unit-cost absorption |
| FY turnaround cost | $1.35B | $1.35B | Not consistently available | No change | Reiterated | Annual plan unchangedApproximately $520M implied for H2 |
The direct read-through was to benchmark and captured refining margins, West Coast EBITDA per barrel, utilization and the earnings effect of turnaround timing.
Lower turnaround intensity plus elevated cracks implied a sharp sequential earnings acceleration, with the derivative headwind potentially reversing.
The first-day gain reflected capture quality, the buyback and a cleaner Q2; the move later became more dependent on crack strength.
The initial 3.2% gain faded near term, then the stock rose materially as crack spreads strengthened into July.
| Window | Stock | vs benchmark | vs peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | +3.2% | +2.3% | +2.3% |
| 2D | -2.7% | -5.0% | +2.2% |
| 5D | -0.0% | -3.0% | +1.5% |
A conflict-driven global refining outage turned structural tightening into an acute physical shortage, amplifying MPC's crude-sourcing advantage.
1Q26 (May 5): "geopolitical events tightened global markets, disrupted trade flows and drove global cracks higher," a distinct macro driver.
1Q26 (May 5): "resilient demand for both gas and diesel across Mid-Con, Gulf Coast and the West Coast," with jet a "big story."
1Q26 (May 5): $530mm spent, ~40% of full-year activity completed, "lowest level of unplanned downtime this decade."
1Q26 (May 5): ~6 mb/d (~6% of global capacity) offline from the conflict, plus ~1 mb/d in Russia, a step-change supply loss.
1Q26 (May 5): "largely insulated," running record Canadian volumes, local crudes, ~10 mmbbl SPR barrels and 5 Venezuelan cargoes.
1Q26 (May 5): keeping "a very close eye on our inventories" amid steep backwardation; Mid-Con stocks fell to abnormally low levels.
1Q26 (May 5): region now "short several refineries," with a small wholesale share gain as competitors exit.
1Q26 (May 5): capture impacted by "market-driven headwinds, primarily secondary products and derivatives."
Consensus snapshots are reconstructed from contemporaneous broker notes; the flattened AlphaSense export does not preserve stable document URLs.
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