R&M adjusted EBITDA of $2.00B beat consensus near $1.60B as capture reached 114%. Throughput of 3,038 mbpd and 95% utilization exceeded the 90% plan. The 2026 consolidated capital program of about $4.2B was well above Street expectations.
[AS-031]Q1 2026 crude throughput was 2,540 mbpd, total throughput 2,740 mbpd at about 85–86% utilization, turnaround cost $465M and operating cost $5.85/bbl.
[AS-031]The guide established a front-loaded maintenance trough while higher MPLX growth capex increased the medium-term investment burden.
[AS-031]The stock focused on the magnitude of the refining beat and trusted MPC's conservative operating-guide pattern.
[MKT-001]R&M adjusted EBITDA of $2.00B beat consensus near $1.60B as capture reached 114%. Throughput of 3,038 mbpd and 95% utilization exceeded the 90% plan. The 2026 consolidated capital program of about $4.2B was well above Street expectations.
R&M adjusted EBITDA of $2.00B beat consensus near $1.60B as capture reached 114%.
Throughput of 3,038 mbpd and 95% utilization exceeded the 90% plan.
The 2026 consolidated capital program of about $4.2B was well above Street expectations.
Q1 2026 crude throughput was 2,540 mbpd, total throughput 2,740 mbpd at about 85–86% utilization, turnaround cost $465M and operating cost $5.85/bbl.
| Metric | Prior | Latest | Consensus | Delta | Status | Reason / implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude throughput | Q4 actual above 2,900 mbpd | 2,540 mbpd | Not consistently available | Sharp sequential decline | New Q1 guide | Front-loaded turnarounds85–86% utilization |
| Total throughput | 3,038 mbpd actual | 2,740 mbpd | Not consistently available | -298 mbpd | New Q1 guide | MaintenanceDeliberate trough |
| Turnaround cost | $420M Q4 guide | $465M | Not consistently available | +$45M | New Q1 guide | TimingHeavy first-quarter work |
| Operating cost | $5.80/bbl | $5.85/bbl | Not consistently available | +$0.05/bbl | New Q1 guide | Fixed-cost absorptionHigher on lower volume |
| 2026 consolidated capex | Street near $3.3–3.5B | Approximately $4.2B | Approximately $3.3–3.5B | Materially above Street | New FY plan | MPLX growth projectsInvestment headwind |
The relevant read-through was to refining capture, regional margin, utilization, turnaround expense and sour-differential sensitivity.
The guide established a front-loaded maintenance trough while higher MPLX growth capex increased the medium-term investment burden.
The stock focused on the magnitude of the refining beat and trusted MPC's conservative operating-guide pattern.
The stock rose about 6% on day one and roughly 10% through day two.
| Window | Stock | vs benchmark | vs peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | +6.0% | +6.9% | +0.6% |
| 2D | +10.8% | +12.1% | +1.6% |
| 5D | +15.5% | +15.6% | +3.9% |
Heavy-sour crude and West Coast capacity exits improved structural capture, but the near-term crack strip weakened sharply.
4Q25: MPC bought first two Venezuelan cargoes late January; can pivot to Venezuelan crude at Garyville, WCS ~$1-2/bbl wider.
4Q25 strip implies ~55-60% q/q crack decline into 1Q26 as inventories build and utilization stays high.
4Q25: jet demand +4%, gasoline & distillates +1% over the year; steady consumption.
4Q25: competitors exiting California; MPC "very well positioned to benefit from product shortages in PADD 5".
The relevant read-through was to refining capture, regional margin, utilization, turnaround expense and sour-differential sensitivity.
4Q25: distribution costs rising on greater brand investment, targeted at third party.
4Q25: PSX/KMI Western Gateway advancing with shipper commitments after open seasons.
Consensus snapshots are reconstructed from contemporaneous broker notes; the flattened AlphaSense export does not preserve stable document URLs.
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