R&M adjusted EBITDA of $489M beat roughly $277M consensus, with 104% capture at 89% utilization. Midstream adjusted EBITDA of $1.72B also exceeded expectations. MPC returned $1.3B, including $1.1B of buybacks, despite the maintenance trough.
[AS-028]Q2 total throughput was guided to 2,945 mbpd at 94% utilization, below Street estimates near 3,028–3,029 mbpd; turnaround cost fell to $265M.
[AS-028]The plan implied a sharp sequential volume and profit recovery, but a lower ask than the Street had embedded.
[AS-028]The small positive move balanced better capture and midstream performance against lower throughput expectations and concern that leverage could slow buybacks.
[MKT-001]R&M adjusted EBITDA of $489M beat roughly $277M consensus, with 104% capture at 89% utilization. Midstream adjusted EBITDA of $1.72B also exceeded expectations. MPC returned $1.3B, including $1.1B of buybacks, despite the maintenance trough.
R&M adjusted EBITDA of $489M beat roughly $277M consensus, with 104% capture at 89% utilization.
Midstream adjusted EBITDA of $1.72B also exceeded expectations.
MPC returned $1.3B, including $1.1B of buybacks, despite the maintenance trough.
Q2 total throughput was guided to 2,945 mbpd at 94% utilization, below Street estimates near 3,028–3,029 mbpd; turnaround cost fell to $265M.
| Metric | Prior | Latest | Consensus | Delta | Status | Reason / implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total throughput | 2,770 mbpd Q1 guide | 2,945 mbpd | Approximately 3,028–3,029 mbpd | +175 mbpd | New Q2 guide | Maintenance roll-offBelow Street despite recovery |
| Crude utilization | Approximately 85% | 94% | Not consistently available | +900bp | New Q2 guide | Gulf Coast restartSharp sequential rebound |
| Turnaround cost | $450M | $265M | Not consistently available | -$185M | New Q2 guide | TimingLower profit drag |
| FY standalone capex | $1.25B | $1.25B | Not consistently available | No change | Reiterated | Capital plan unchangedMPLX distributions cover capex and dividend |
| MPLX distributions to MPC | Approximately $2.5B annualized | Approximately $2.5B | Not consistently available | No change | Reiterated | Midstream growth12.5% distribution growth |
The environment supported a second-quarter throughput and opex improvement, with cracks, crude differentials and renewable-diesel credits driving the earnings swing.
The plan implied a sharp sequential volume and profit recovery, but a lower ask than the Street had embedded.
The small positive move balanced better capture and midstream performance against lower throughput expectations and concern that leverage could slow buybacks.
The shares gained only 0.9% on day one, then extended to about 10.3% after five sessions as the refining backdrop improved.
| Window | Stock | vs benchmark | vs peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | +0.8% | +1.6% | +2.5% |
| 2D | +0.9% | +1.3% | +2.6% |
| 5D | +10.3% | +6.9% | +0.1% |
Seasonal cracks, refinery utilization and product inventories improved, while West Coast closures strengthened the medium-term opportunity.
"Steady year-over-year demand for gasoline and growth for diesel and jet fuel"; export demand up YoY, "no real signs of recession"
1Q throughput of 2,849 mbpd beat guidance by 3%; 2Q guided to 2,945 mbpd / 94% utilization
RD ran 70% utilization on unplanned downtime; loss of $(42)M smaller than feared; 45Z recognition limited in 1Q, expected to improve from 2Q
Refined-product inventories "drawn for the ninth straight week and are below the 5-year average"; 1Q working-capital inventory build to reverse partly in 2Q
Light-heavy diffs "could remain narrow" near-term on Canadian maintenance, but "higher OPEC plus production could offset that"; MPC expects diffs to widen as OPEC+ returns barrels
2Q opex guided to $5.30/bbl, turnaround down to $265M as activity shifts to Mid-Con/West Coast
MPC investing in its LA refinery (~$100M modernization) "putting cash into the West Coast as peers take cash out via closures"; ~800 kbpd of US/Europe capacity coming offline in 2025
Cracks "$4 better in the second quarter than we were in the first…typical seasonal improvement"
Consensus snapshots are reconstructed from contemporaneous broker notes; the flattened AlphaSense export does not preserve stable document URLs.
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