Adjusted EPS of $4.12 was roughly one-third above the $3.09 consensus. System capture reached 94% with 97% utilization, while $2.9B of buybacks drove $3.2B of total distributions. MPLX adjusted EBITDA reached $1.62B, reinforcing the midstream funding bridge.
[AS-025]Q3 total throughput was guided to 2,845 mbpd at roughly 90% utilization, with $330M of turnaround cost; the FY turnaround budget remained $1.4B.
[AS-025]The utilization and maintenance plan implied a sharp sequential refining slowdown after a very strong summer quarter, primarily because of planned work rather than demand.
[AS-025]The stock rewarded the earnings and buyback surprise immediately, then gave the move back as cracks and the Q3 operating cadence became more important.
[MKT-001]Adjusted EPS of $4.12 was roughly one-third above the $3.09 consensus. System capture reached 94% with 97% utilization, while $2.9B of buybacks drove $3.2B of total distributions. MPLX adjusted EBITDA reached $1.62B, reinforcing the midstream funding bridge.
Adjusted EPS of $4.12 was roughly one-third above the $3.09 consensus.
System capture reached 94% with 97% utilization, while $2.9B of buybacks drove $3.2B of total distributions.
MPLX adjusted EBITDA reached $1.62B, reinforcing the midstream funding bridge.
Q3 total throughput was guided to 2,845 mbpd at roughly 90% utilization, with $330M of turnaround cost; the FY turnaround budget remained $1.4B.
| Metric | Prior | Latest | Consensus | Delta | Status | Reason / implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total throughput | Q2 actual 3,020 mbpd | 2,845 mbpd | Not consistently available | -175 mbpd sequential | New Q3 guide | Planned maintenanceAbout 90% utilization |
| Crude utilization | 97% actual | Approximately 90% | Not consistently available | -700bp sequential | New Q3 guide | Turnaround scheduleClear Q3 deceleration |
| Turnaround cost | Q2 below peak maintenance | $330M | Not consistently available | Sequential increase | New Q3 guide | Timing of planned workFY envelope remains $1.4B |
| FY turnaround cost | $1.4B | $1.4B | Not consistently available | No change | Reiterated | Annual maintenance plan unchangedBack-half spending remains significant |
| Operating cost | Q2 actual below guide | $5.35/bbl | Not consistently available | Higher on lower runs | New Q3 guide | Lower denominator and maintenanceUnit cost rises mechanically |
The environment supported capture and midstream cash generation, while the 90% utilization guide implied a sequential refining slowdown.
The utilization and maintenance plan implied a sharp sequential refining slowdown after a very strong summer quarter, primarily because of planned work rather than demand.
The stock rewarded the earnings and buyback surprise immediately, then gave the move back as cracks and the Q3 operating cadence became more important.
The roughly 5.5% first-day rise reversed before the next earnings event.
| Window | Stock | vs benchmark | vs peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | +5.5% | +4.4% | +4.5% |
| 2D | +4.5% | +4.3% | +3.8% |
| 5D | +8.8% | +5.8% | +5.9% |
Product demand and commercial capture remained healthy, but lower cracks and planned maintenance pointed to a weaker third quarter.
Steady y/y consumption for gasoline and diesel, "really strong signals" on jet; 2024 another record consumption year
2Q actual 97% utilization, ~2.9M bpd crude; 3Q guided to 90% on turnarounds
Midstream EBITDA $1.6B, +6% y/y; MPLX distributed $550M; BANGL, Whistler/Blackcomb FID advancing
Gasoline margins supported by a falling price environment; multiple sales channels a capture differentiator
TMX startup pressuring ANS, "very positive" for West Coast; running advantaged barrels at Anacortes and LA
2Q opex $4.97/bbl (GC $3.73); RINs expense fell to $293M from $694M y/y
Reiterated US industry remains "structurally advantaged over the rest of the world," assets most competitive in each region
Per-barrel margins down sequentially primarily on lower crack spreads; R&M margin $17.37/bbl vs $22.10 a year earlier
Consensus snapshots are reconstructed from contemporaneous broker notes; the flattened AlphaSense export does not preserve stable document URLs.
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