DELLFull-year results29 May 2025
Dell Technologies

FY2026 Q1: Record AI orders and backlog strengthened the demand thesis, but EPS, recognized AI revenue and gross margin disappointed, producing a muted reaction.

ResultMissGuidanceMixed / newly framedEnvironmentimproving
Investment snapshot

What happened and why it mattered

Print

Miss

Revenue of $23.4B grew 5%, but non-GAAP EPS of $1.55 missed consensus near $1.69. AI orders reached $12.1B and backlog $14.4B, while recognized AI revenue of $1.8B missed expectations near $2.3B. The gap between orders and revenue highlighted deployment and revenue-recognition timing.

[AS-036]
Guidance

Mixed / newly framed

Q2 revenue was $28.5–29.5B with about $7B of AI-server revenue; FY2026 revenue stayed $101–105B, EPS moved to $9.40 from $9.30 and AI revenue remained at least $15B.

[AS-036]
Implied growth

No clear inflection

A very large Q2 AI ramp was required, while the full-year revenue range remained unchanged and the EPS raise was modest.

[AS-036]
Stock reaction

-2.1%

Investors balanced a thesis-strengthening order book against the EPS miss, delayed revenue recognition and limited annual uplift.

[MKT-001]
Results versus expectations

The print and the three most important read-throughs

Revenue of $23.4B grew 5%, but non-GAAP EPS of $1.55 missed consensus near $1.69. AI orders reached $12.1B and backlog $14.4B, while recognized AI revenue of $1.8B missed expectations near $2.3B. The gap between orders and revenue highlighted deployment and revenue-recognition timing.

  1. 1

    Revenue of $23.4B grew 5%, but non-GAAP EPS of $1.55 missed consensus near $1.69.

  2. 2

    AI orders reached $12.1B and backlog $14.4B, while recognized AI revenue of $1.8B missed expectations near $2.3B.

  3. 3

    The gap between orders and revenue highlighted deployment and revenue-recognition timing.

[AS-036]
Guidance bridge

Latest outlook and KPI implications

GuidanceMixed / newly framed

Q2 revenue was $28.5–29.5B with about $7B of AI-server revenue; FY2026 revenue stayed $101–105B, EPS moved to $9.40 from $9.30 and AI revenue remained at least $15B.

MetricPriorLatestConsensusDeltaStatusReason / implication
FY2026 revenue$101–105B$101–105BNot consistently availableNo changeReiteratedDeployment timingAnnual midpoint held despite record orders
FY2026 non-GAAP EPS$9.30 ± $0.25$9.40 ± $0.25Not consistently available+$0.10 midpointRaisedFirst-quarter flow-throughOnly a modest raise
FY2026 AI-server revenueAt least $15BAt least $15BNot consistently availableNo changeReiteratedBacklog conversionLarge conversion required after $1.8B Q1
Q2 revenueNot previously guided$28.5–29.5BNot consistently availableNewNewAI shipmentsSharp sequential acceleration
Q2 AI-server revenueQ1 recognized $1.8BApproximately $7BNot consistently available+$5.2B sequentialNewBacklog and supply availabilityDemanding deployment cadence
Management signal — paraphrased

The demand environment supported a major revenue raise, but input inflation and supply timing reduced gross-margin visibility.

Implied cadence

A very large Q2 AI ramp was required, while the full-year revenue range remained unchanged and the EPS raise was modest.

[AS-036]
Stock reaction

Why the shares moved

Investors balanced a thesis-strengthening order book against the EPS miss, delayed revenue recognition and limited annual uplift.

  • $12.1B AI orders
  • EPS and AI revenue misses
  • Strong Q2 shipment requirement
Did the reaction persist?

The stock declined about 2.1% on the first full session.

[MKT-001]
Adjusted-close reaction
WindowStockvs benchmarkvs peers
1D-2.1%-2.1%-0.9%
2D-4.9%-5.3%-3.9%
5D-1.6%-2.0%-1.4%
Independently calculated adjusted-close returns
Market environment delta

What management said about the operating backdrop

Environmentimproving

AI and traditional-server demand broadened materially, while supply access and component inflation became the binding constraints.

Demand
  • Customer demandImproving

    "Demand was stronger than we anticipated across all lines of businesses and geographies," accelerating not slowing

    OutlookPipeline "never healthier," growing above historical ratesKPI implicationUnderpinned $27B FY27 revenue raiseStatement · High confidence · AS-ME-036
  • Volumes / order activityImproving

    $24.4B AI orders, $16.1B AI revenue, record $51.3B backlog , 5,000+ AI customers (+50% in 6 months)

    OutlookExpects to exit FY27 with meaningful backlogKPI implicationBacklog supports ≥$60B FY27 AI revenueQuantified datapoint · High confidence · AS-ME-036
  • Regional / end-marketImproving

    Traditional server strength "broad-based…across all regions"; enterprise fastest-growing AI cohort, neoclouds still largest

    OutlookAI broadening to sovereign/enterprise; agentic AI new TAMKPI implicationTraditional server +92%, ISG OpM 10.5%Statement · High confidence · AS-ME-036
Supply
  • Channel / inventoryMixed

    Customers "moving decisively to secure supply," pulling in orders and hoarding capacity

    OutlookPull-in a smaller contributor per mgmt; risk of later air-pocketKPI implicationElevated inventory; net pull-in inflates near-term revenueStatement · Medium confidence · AS-ME-036
  • Supply availabilityWorsening

    "Supply constrained in the second half…not a demand issue"; memory the primary constraint

    OutlookSecond-half shipments gated by parts, not ordersKPI implicationQ2 AI rev ~$15.5B (~4% below Q1) on supply timingStatement · High confidence · AS-ME-036
  • Input costs / capacityWorsening

    Greatest pressure from DRAM, NAND and microprocessors , then hard drives; costs rising across all products

    OutlookSustained component-cost inflation through FY27KPI implication~350bps YoY gross-margin compression to 18.1%Statement · High confidence · AS-ME-036
Competition
  • CompetitionImproving

    Management said Dell is "gaining share across PCs, storage, traditional servers and AI servers," aided by a competitor's compliance scrutiny

    OutlookContinued share gains, especially displaced SMCI/HPE demandKPI implicationShare gains support >12% server market shareStatement · High confidence · AS-ME-036
  • PricingWorsening (input-driven)

    Clarke: repricing "frequently," moved price up early in Q1—"probably moved a little too early," tempering transactional demand

    OutlookOngoing price increases; elasticity risk builds into H2KPI implicationCSG margin 8% in Q1, guided to ~6% in Q2–Q4Statement · High confidence · AS-ME-036
[AS-ME-036]
Evidence and confidence

Source map

The AlphaSense export's dedicated guidance section was contaminated with FY2027 Q1 content. This synthesis excludes that section and reconstructs contemporaneous FY2026 Q1 guidance from the report's earlier event, transcript and broker-note sections.

Restricted synthesisAS-ME-036

AlphaSense market-environment synthesis

Open source ↗