Read this dashboard top-down: first anchor on CO12 price, then use the regime heatmap to see which parts of the curve were in BULL+, BULL, NEUTRAL, BEAR, or BEAR+, and finally check the underlying tenor prices.
Data source: /Users/agentr/Claude/data-local/bbg/bql_exports/oil_curve_spreads/oil_curve_spreads_20260630_150746/local_output/processed/curve_spreads_hybrid_cmt_patch_panel.csv. Chart starts from 2011-01-01.
This dashboard contains the spread diagnostics behind the regime labels. The first panel uses simple percent spreads, not annualized log spreads; the next two panels keep the dollar-spread and percentile-rank views.
Data source: /Users/agentr/Claude/data-local/bbg/bql_exports/oil_curve_spreads/oil_curve_spreads_20260630_150746/local_output/processed/curve_spreads_hybrid_cmt_patch_panel.csv. Chart starts from 2011-01-01.
This report puts the main Brent curve regime signals on one shared date axis with CO12 price. The objective is to let the reader compare the path of Brent with the contemporaneous state of four curve segments: CO1-CO12, CO12-CO24, CO12-CO36, and CO12-CO60.
The framework treats each spread as a different layer of the Brent cycle. CO1-CO12 captures prompt-market tightness; CO12-CO24 captures the near-cycle; CO12-CO36 captures the medium-cycle; and CO12-CO60 captures the long-end equilibrium signal. The chart shows whether these layers agree, diverge, or rotate through the cycle.
The chart is not a calibrated return forecast. It is a regime-classification dashboard: a way to ask whether the curve is broadly bullish, broadly bearish, or split between prompt and long-end signals at each point in history.
Measurement: the signal-facing timespreads are log/percentage spreads, not raw dollar gaps. That makes a $5 spread at $40 oil different from a $5 spread at $100 oil. The report still shows dollar spreads as a companion because physical traders and P&L intuition often live in $/bbl.
CO1-CO12 captures the prompt-cycle state: inventory stress, convenience yield, outages, near-term demand, and immediate physical tightness. When CO1 is rich versus CO12, the market is paying for barrels now, usually a tight prompt market. When CO1 is cheap versus CO12, the market is in contango or weak-prompt conditions.
CO12-CO24 captures the near-cycle state beyond immediate spot noise. It asks whether the one-year point is unusually cheap or rich versus the two-year anchor, so it is less about today's inventories and more about whether the market expects the current cycle to normalize over the next year.
CO12-CO36 is a medium-cycle spread. It compares the tradable one-year cycle price against a slower three-year anchor, so it should pick up broader cyclical over- or undershoots: shale response, OPEC reaction, demand-cycle expectations, and whether current pricing is stretched versus a medium-term equilibrium.
CO12-CO60 is the long-end equilibrium spread. The 60-month point reflects slow-moving beliefs about long-run cost curves, decline rates, spare capacity, and demand trajectory. This spread is best read as a regime signal rather than a point forecast: when CO12 is unusually cheap versus 60m, the cycle may be bombed out; when it is unusually rich, the market may be pricing tightness that the long end does not fully ratify.