Methodology

The product measures nominal USD revenue activity in downstream proxy industries. It is not a forecast of physical commodity tonnes.

Primary comparison

Forward consensus = FY2 revenue / FY1 revenue - 1
Reported activity = latest four reported quarters / preceding four quarters - 1
Acceleration gap = forward consensus - reported activity

A company enters only when both legs are valid in the same monthly vintage. Company growth is calculated first, the company median is taken within each end-market basket, and commodity-specific physical weights are applied last.

Calendarisation and reporting season

The 24M/0M control uses company fiscal period-end dates and FY0-FY3 USD revenue. When FY1 has already ended but Bloomberg has not rolled the fiscal labels, the exact calculation is replaced only temporarily by a labelled FY1-to-FY3 fiscal bridge. Exact, bridge, and excluded observations remain visible.

No-lookahead rule

Quarterly reported revenue is eligible only when both the reported period end and Bloomberg result revision/publication date are on or before the monthly vintage.

Physical weights

Each commodity publishes a smooth monthly interpolation, a step-weight control, and a fixed-latest-mix control. Smooth historical interpolation is descriptive; step weights are the more conservative historical sensitivity.

Copper End-Demand Consensus

Weight source: Copper Development Association U.S. end-use mix; 2003-2023.

CDA weights describe U.S. copper end use while the proxy-company universe is global.
The smooth historical mix is descriptive; the completed-year step series is the conservative historical control.

Aluminum End-Demand Consensus

Weight source: CRU-derived Global aluminum end-use mix; 2000-2020.

The annual 2000-2020 CRU history was reconstructed from later publication vintages and is not strict point-in-time data.
Packaging and foil uses a thin GICS containers proxy (two current point-in-time ACWI names); foil-stock activity is not separately observable.
Reported-activity and acceleration-gap panels are intentionally withheld until the incremental Aerospace and Containers quarterly revenue extract is available.