Sika V3 Organic-Preferred Growth

Generated: 2026-07-23

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Company-only V3 scope: AS-led candidates passing the locked relationship contract are automatically approved. Macro, commodity/input-price, and text/commentary signals remain deferred. Historical qualification is recomputed at true same period; forecast timing is handled separately.

Sections
Executive SummaryPrimary Overview: Organic GrowthRun Metadata

Executive Summary Back to top

What This Pack Is For

Sika target growth is compared with pre-labelled peer, demand, channel/inventory, and upstream company baskets using the V3 AS-led approval universe.

Analysis

  • Sika targets use the six validated V2 organic-growth vectors. Candidate vectors use explicit series-level unit contracts and are rescored on the same values shown here.
  • Each approved source is standardized independently before the equal-weight available-source composite is calculated.
  • A composite requires at least one active approved source. Single-source composites are shown and explicitly identified by their 1/1 breadth; they should be read as lower-confidence signals. Filled markers show full coverage; open markers show valid partial coverage; quarters with no active source are left blank.
  • Primary target and aggregate paths connect between observed points across missing spans for readability, but no observation marker is drawn and missing values remain excluded from scoring.
  • Absolute target growth remains in the card metadata; all visible time-series charts use z-scores so mixed units are never averaged directly.
  • Correlations validate the semantic driver stack; they do not establish causality.

Primary Overview: Organic Growth Back to top

Same-period z-score view. The left chart compares target momentum with the approved available-source composite; the right chart shows the same composite and the strongest bucket-diverse sources. The composite is the equal-weight mean of available approved sources and requires at least one active source. A 1/1 composite is displayed but is explicitly lower breadth than a multi-company signal. Filled markers denote full coverage and open markers denote valid partial coverage. A valid source composite remains visible inside the target-history window even when that target quarter is missing. Primary target and aggregate lines connect between observed points across missing spans without adding points or filling missing values; raw source diagnostics retain their actual gaps. Quarters with no active approved source remain blank. An isolated black diamond, when available, is the latest target NTM/LTM revenue consensus standardized against the displayed target history and positioned four quarters after the latest actual. Organic and quarterly-YoY targets label this explicitly as a revenue-consensus proxy. The marker is display-only and is excluded from scoring. Expand each source diagnostic to inspect every approved company and metric.

Construction Industry

sources n=4 / companies n=4Industry growth=2, Downstream demand=1, Upstream input=1minimum composite breadth 1/4active sources at latest target 1/4latest target actual -0.8%latest target z -0.7latest composite z +0.6 at 26 Q2partial-coverage observations 18target/composite overlap 40 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite z-2.7-1.20.21.73.114 Q116 Q319 Q121 Q223 Q426 Q2
Composite zComposite zRockwool · Organic (%)RockwoolOrganic (%)Lennar · Cost of RevenueLennarCost of RevenueLyondellBasell · is_capex_as_reportedLyondellBasellis_capex_as_reportedHeidelberg Materials · Organic Revenue Growth (%) | Flight Support GroupHeidelberg MaterialsOrganic Revenue Growth (%…-4.3-2.3-0.21.93.916 Q318 Q320 Q322 Q224 Q226 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Construction Industry industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Organic Revenue Growth (%) | Flight Support Group HEI UN EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 40 0.413672 0.023909 False
Construction Industry upstream_input LyondellBasell Other > Capital Expenditures LYB UN EQUITY is_capex_as_reported 29 -0.414265 0.050938 False
Construction Industry downstream_demand Lennar Cost of Revenue LEN UN EQUITY is_cogs_to_fe_and_pp_and_g_incl_excl_items 36 0.360560 0.203969 True
Construction Industry industry_growth Rockwool Organic (%) ROCKB DC EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 25 0.532837 0.023909 False

Industrial Manufacturing

sources n=2 / companies n=2Downstream demand=2minimum composite breadth 1/2active sources at latest target 0/2latest target actual +3.1%latest target z -0.2latest composite z +0.1 at 26 Q1partial-coverage observations 6target/composite overlap 36 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite z-3.8-1.60.52.74.814 Q116 Q319 Q121 Q223 Q426 Q2
Composite zComposite zToyota Motor · is_rev_including_interseg_revToyota Motoris_rev_including_interseg…Stellantis · number_of_vehicles_soldStellantisnumber_of_vehicles_sold-2.8-1.20.42.13.717 Q219 Q120 Q422 Q324 Q226 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Industrial Manufacturing downstream_demand Toyota Motor Asia > Revenue Incl. Intersegment Revenue 7203 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 31 0.427637 0.032818 False
Industrial Manufacturing downstream_demand Stellantis Total Vehicles Sold STLAM IM EQUITY number_of_vehicles_sold 35 -0.416599 0.032818 False

Americas

sources n=13 / companies n=13Industry growth=6, Downstream demand=2, Channel / inventory=2, Upstream input=3minimum composite breadth 1/13active sources at latest target 2/13latest target actual -1.2%latest target z -0.6latest composite z +0.0 at 26 Q2partial-coverage observations 15target/composite overlap 33 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite z-2.6-1.30.11.52.918 Q119 Q421 Q223 Q124 Q326 Q2
Composite zComposite zRockwool · Segment revenue: Western EuropeRockwoolSegment revenue: Western…DR Horton · InventoriesDR HortonInventoriesHome Depot · InventoriesHome DepotInventoriesBASF · Segment revenue: Performance MaterialsBASFSegment revenue: Performa…Saint-Gobain · Segment revenue: High Performance SolutionsSaint-GobainSegment revenue: High Per…-3.0-1.20.52.34.117 Q219 Q120 Q422 Q424 Q326 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Americas industry_growth Rockwool Segment revenue: Western Europe ROCKB DC EQUITY sales_rev_turn 32 0.910021 4.253174e-12 False
Americas industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Segment revenue: Specialty Products HEI UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.436274 2.587075e-02 False
Americas industry_growth Saint-Gobain Segment revenue: High Performance Solutions SGO FP EQUITY sales_rev_turn 27 0.861575 3.152545e-08 False
Americas upstream_input Dow Segment revenue: Coatings & Performance Monomers DOW UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.619923 1.095798e-03 False
Americas industry_growth Geberit Segment revenue: Far East/Pacific GEBN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.506818 9.410400e-03 False
Americas industry_growth RPM International Segment revenue: CPG RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.773040 7.336701e-06 False
Americas upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Performance Materials BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.831598 1.259245e-07 False
Americas channel_inventory Home Depot Inventories HD UN EQUITY bs_inventories 33 0.743061 2.195023e-06 False
Americas upstream_input LyondellBasell Intermediates & Derivatives > Revenue | Segment Revenue > Intermediates & Derivatives LYB UN EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 32 0.809460 1.218618e-07 False
Americas channel_inventory Ferguson Sales Carried Forward FERG UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 29 0.657320 1.605453e-04 False
Americas downstream_demand DR Horton Inventories DHI UN EQUITY bs_inventories 32 0.726459 1.757471e-05 False
Americas downstream_demand Stellantis Revenue | Total Revenue STLAM IM EQUITY is_comp_sales 30 0.651622 2.238932e-04 False
Americas industry_growth Cemex Cost of Sales CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY is_cogs_to_fe_and_pp_and_g 32 0.664195 5.434141e-05 False

Asia Pacific

sources n=10 / companies n=10Industry growth=2, Downstream demand=6, Upstream input=2minimum composite breadth 1/10active sources at latest target 0/10latest target actual -2.3%latest target z -0.8latest composite z -0.6 at 26 Q1partial-coverage observations 12target/composite overlap 35 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite z-2.3-0.90.51.93.314 Q116 Q319 Q121 Q223 Q426 Q2
Composite zComposite zRPM International · Segment revenue: CanadaRPM InternationalSegment revenue: CanadaNippon Paint Holdings · Segment revenue: Paints & Coating BusinessNippon Paint HoldingsSegment revenue: Paints &…LyondellBasell · ChinaLyondellBasellChinaToyota Motor · Revenue by DestiniationToyota MotorRevenue by DestiniationStellantis · Total RevenueStellantisTotal Revenue-3.2-1.01.23.45.617 Q219 Q120 Q422 Q324 Q226 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Asia Pacific downstream_demand Nippon Paint Holdings Segment revenue: Paints & Coating Business 4612 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.817034 9.902482e-07 False
Asia Pacific downstream_demand General Motors Capital Expenditures GM UN EQUITY capex_manufacturing_operations 31 0.478148 7.962973e-03 False
Asia Pacific downstream_demand Volkswagen Segment revenue: Asia-Pacific VOW3 GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn 35 0.673383 2.044641e-05 False
Asia Pacific downstream_demand Toyota Motor Revenue by Destiniation 7203 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn 35 0.785031 2.599209e-07 False
Asia Pacific upstream_input BASF Revenue | Total Revenue BAS GY EQUITY is_comp_sales 33 0.613286 2.462115e-04 False
Asia Pacific industry_growth RPM International Segment revenue: Canada RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 30 0.747773 1.020375e-05 False
Asia Pacific upstream_input LyondellBasell China LYB UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.764254 1.376726e-05 False
Asia Pacific downstream_demand DR Horton Revenue | Total Revenue DHI UN EQUITY is_comp_sales 35 0.640176 5.422190e-05 False
Asia Pacific downstream_demand Stellantis Total Revenue STLAM IM EQUITY is_comp_sales 33 0.756128 9.902482e-07 False
Asia Pacific industry_growth Cemex Capital Expenditures CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY cf_cap_expend_prpty_add 30 0.351424 9.478853e-02 False

EMEA

sources n=11 / companies n=11Industry growth=5, Downstream demand=2, Channel / inventory=1, Upstream input=3minimum composite breadth 1/11active sources at latest target 1/11latest target actual +1.5%latest target z -0.4latest composite z -0.4 at 26 Q2partial-coverage observations 17target/composite overlap 36 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite z-2.8-1.20.52.23.914 Q116 Q319 Q121 Q223 Q426 Q2
Composite zComposite zRPM International · Construction Products GroupRPM InternationalConstruction Products Gro…Stellantis · is_comp_salesStellantisis_comp_salesHome Depot · Segment revenue: D3) 21/32corHome DepotSegment revenue: D3) 21/3…BASF · Segment revenue: Performance MaterialsBASFSegment revenue: Performa…Dow · Segment revenue: Polyurethanes & Construction ChemicalsDowSegment revenue: Polyuret…-2.9-0.81.33.55.617 Q219 Q120 Q422 Q424 Q326 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
EMEA upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Performance Materials BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.879669 3.535527e-09 False
EMEA upstream_input Dow Segment revenue: Polyurethanes & Construction Chemicals DOW UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.848598 7.209035e-08 False
EMEA industry_growth RPM International Construction Products Group RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.825222 7.462864e-07 False
EMEA upstream_input LyondellBasell Olefins & Polyolefins - Americas > Intracompany Intersegment Revenue LYB UN EQUITY intracompany_intersegment_revs 28 0.845321 3.773520e-08 False
EMEA industry_growth Saint-Gobain Segment revenue: Northern Europe SGO FP EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.752401 6.786163e-06 False
EMEA industry_growth Geberit Segment revenue: Piping Systems GEBN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.782544 2.017173e-06 False
EMEA industry_growth Rockwool Segment revenue: Western Europe ROCKB DC EQUITY sales_rev_turn 35 0.778637 2.547392e-07 False
EMEA channel_inventory Home Depot Segment revenue: D3) 21/32cor HD UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 27 0.556552 5.140790e-03 False
EMEA downstream_demand Stellantis Revenue | Total Revenue STLAM IM EQUITY is_comp_sales 33 0.758299 1.912342e-06 False
EMEA downstream_demand Toyota Motor Asia > Revenue Incl. Intersegment Revenue 7203 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 30 0.733449 1.050528e-05 False
EMEA industry_growth Cemex Cost of Sales CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY is_cogs_to_fe_and_pp_and_g 35 0.648498 3.528939e-05 False

Group

sources n=1 / companies n=1Industry growth=1single-source composite 1/1 (lower breadth)active sources at latest target 0/1latest target actual -0.2%latest target z -0.7latest composite z -4.5 at 25 Q3partial-coverage observations 0target/composite overlap 34 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite z-5.3-2.9-0.61.74.114 Q116 Q319 Q121 Q223 Q426 Q2
Composite zComposite zRPM International · Segment revenue: Specialty Products GroupRPM InternationalSegment revenue: Specialt…-5.2-3.1-1.01.03.117 Q219 Q120 Q322 Q223 Q425 Q3
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group industry_growth RPM International Segment revenue: Specialty Products Group RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 34 0.360566 0.072369 False

Run Metadata Back to top

Approval policyas_led_auto_approve_v3_repaired
Composite methodequal-weight mean of available individually standardized sources; minimum one active source; 1/1 composites shown as lower breadth
Coverage displayfilled markers for full coverage; open markers for valid partial coverage; valid composites retained through missing target quarters; primary lines connect between observed points without inserting observations or markers
Timingsame period; no lead shifting
Relationship rows41
Companies18