Sika V3 Leading Indicators Dashboard

Generated: 2026-07-23

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V3 forecast scope: AS-led forecast-qualified relationships only. Each candidate leads its Sika target by one to four quarters and passed the locked rolling-origin qualification gates.

Sections
Lead-Aligned Composite ChartsOrganic Growth TargetsReported Growth TargetsForecast Source CatalogRun Metadata

Lead-Aligned Composite Charts Back to top

Forecast-qualified V3 sources are shifted forward by their selected empirical +1Q..+4Q lead to the target quarter they predict, then inverse relationships are sign-aligned before the signal is averaged. The signal is the equal-weight mean of available approved sources and requires at least one active source. Filled markers denote full approved-source coverage and open markers denote valid partial coverage. Every dashed post-target point is labelled active n / approved n. A one-source forward point is retained but overlaid with an amber marker and explicitly labelled as a single-source forward signal, not diversified composite evidence. The right chart shows every approved source that actually contributes to at least one forward point rather than a historical-correlation top-five subset. A valid aggregate remains visible inside the target-history window when the target quarter is missing. Primary target and aggregate paths connect between observed points across missing spans without adding observation markers or filling data; raw source diagnostics retain their actual gaps. Quarters with no active approved source remain blank. The underlying forward observations were available one to four quarters earlier. Raw, uninverted source lines remain visible and inverse rows are labelled in the charts and diagnostic tables. Organic and reported target bases are separated below because they are distinct target series. The isolated black diamond is Bloomberg target NTM/LTM revenue consensus, standardized against the displayed target history and positioned at latest actual +4Q; it is display-only and never enters the relationship signal. These are relationship indicators, not the full Sika earnings model.

Organic Growth Targets Back to top

Governed organic-growth target vectors and their forecast-qualified leading relationships.

Positive-lead historical indicator view for the organic growth basis.

Construction Industry — Organic Growth

strict n=6lead mix +1Q=1, +3Q=2, +4Q=3minimum aggregate breadth 1/6active sources at latest target 5/6forward-active source lines shown 4/6latest aligned signal z -0.4 at 26 Q2last target-overlap z -0.4 at 26 Q2forward coverage beyond latest target 4Qdashed forward signal z -0.6 at 27 Q2; active sources 1/6 (partial coverage)aggregate observations 40 / target overlap 36

Low-breadth forward warning: 27 Q2 1/6 (Heidelberg Materials). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signal-2.7-1.20.21.73.14/63/63/61/614 Q116 Q419 Q222 Q124 Q327 Q2
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalHeidelberg Materials · +4Q · inverseHeidelberg Materials+4Q · inverseDR Horton · +4Q · positiveDR Horton+4Q · positiveAmazon · +4Q · positiveAmazon+4Q · positiveStellantis · +3Q · positiveStellantis+3Q · positive-4.3-2.3-0.41.63.54/63/63/61/617 Q319 Q321 Q323 Q225 Q227 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Construction Industry — Organic Growth downstream_demand DR Horton Southeast DHI UN EQUITY number_of_homes_in_backlog 33 0.640590 4 positive 0.657058 0.750000 0.002372 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Organic Revenue Growth (%) | Flight Support Group HEI UN EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 36 -0.500552 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.212403 0.583333 0.022518 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth downstream_demand Amazon Segment revenue: Online Stores AMZN UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 32 0.390728 4 positive 0.243592 0.583333 0.063599 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Intermediates and Derivatives > Ethylene Oxide & Derivatives LYB UN EQUITY shipment_volume 33 0.449432 3 positive 0.096136 0.750000 0.069544 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth industry_growth Rockwool Organic (%) ROCKB DC EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 25 0.799854 1 positive 0.516780 0.555556 0.000038 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 34 0.439514 3 positive 0.259458 0.583333 0.025681 False

Industrial Manufacturing — Organic Growth

strict n=3lead mix +1Q=3minimum aggregate breadth 1/3active sources at latest target 2/3forward-active source lines shown 0/3latest aligned signal z +0.3 at 26 Q2last target-overlap z +0.3 at 26 Q2forward coverage beyond latest target 0Qaggregate observations 36 / target overlap 36

Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signal-3.8-1.60.52.74.814 Q116 Q319 Q121 Q223 Q426 Q2
Composite zComposite zCemex · +1Q · positiveCemex+1Q · positiveToyota Motor · +1Q · positiveToyota Motor+1Q · positiveStellantis · +1Q · positiveStellantis+1Q · positive-2.8-1.20.42.13.717 Q319 Q221 Q122 Q424 Q326 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Industrial Manufacturing — Organic Growth downstream_demand Toyota Motor Asia > Revenue Incl. Intersegment Revenue 7203 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 31 0.574641 1 positive -0.136041 0.666667 0.011556 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Organic Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 35 0.408166 1 positive 0.227583 0.500000 0.079618 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Organic Growth industry_growth Cemex Total Revenue CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY is_comp_sales 36 0.605739 1 positive -0.724186 0.583333 0.001086 False

Americas — Organic Growth

strict n=13lead mix +1Q=5, +2Q=4, +3Q=1, +4Q=3minimum aggregate breadth 1/13active sources at latest target 12/13forward-active source lines shown 8/13latest aligned signal z -0.4 at 26 Q2last target-overlap z -0.4 at 26 Q2forward coverage beyond latest target 4Qdashed forward signal z -0.2 at 27 Q2; active sources 1/13 (partial coverage)aggregate observations 38 / target overlap 33

Low-breadth forward warning: 27 Q2 1/13 (Heidelberg Materials). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signal-2.6-1.30.11.52.98/134/133/131/1318 Q119 Q421 Q423 Q325 Q327 Q2
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalHeidelberg Materials · +4Q · inverseHeidelberg Materials+4Q · inverseHome Depot · +3Q · positiveHome Depot+3Q · positiveMicrosoft · +4Q · positiveMicrosoft+4Q · positiveStellantis · +4Q · positiveStellantis+4Q · positiveDow · +2Q · positiveDow+2Q · positiveBASF · +2Q · positiveBASF+2Q · positiveLyondellBasell · +2Q · positiveLyondellBasell+2Q · positiveFerguson · +2Q · positiveFerguson+2Q · positive-3.5-1.50.52.54.48/134/133/131/1317 Q319 Q321 Q323 Q225 Q227 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Americas — Organic Growth industry_growth Rockwool Segment revenue: Western Europe ROCKB DC EQUITY sales_rev_turn 33 0.620130 1 positive 0.714742 0.666667 0.001895 False
Americas — Organic Growth industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Segment revenue: Specialty Products HEI UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 22 -0.711572 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite -0.116825 0.500000 0.002180 False
Americas — Organic Growth upstream_input Dow Segment revenue: Coatings & Performance Monomers DOW UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.797234 2 positive 0.193086 0.700000 0.000026 False
Americas — Organic Growth industry_growth Geberit Segment revenue: Far East/Pacific GEBN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.780466 1 positive 0.363655 0.700000 0.000082 False
Americas — Organic Growth industry_growth Saint-Gobain Spain-Italy SGO FP EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 25 0.561242 1 positive 0.437280 0.666667 0.017251 False
Americas — Organic Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Segment revenue: The Netherlands LYB UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 27 0.731579 2 positive 0.284661 0.545455 0.000099 False
Americas — Organic Growth upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Materials BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn 27 0.758636 2 positive 0.602097 0.545455 0.000054 False
Americas — Organic Growth downstream_demand Nippon Paint Holdings Segment revenue: Paints & Coating Business 4612 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.688798 1 positive 0.007033 0.500000 0.000560 False
Americas — Organic Growth downstream_demand Microsoft Segment revenue: More Personal Computing MSFT UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 32 0.358823 4 positive -0.425009 0.583333 0.061346 False
Americas — Organic Growth channel_inventory Home Depot Segment revenue: International HD UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.719582 3 positive 0.754458 0.600000 0.000411 False
Americas — Organic Growth channel_inventory Ferguson Sales Carried Forward FERG UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 29 0.391250 2 positive 0.291173 0.583333 0.061438 False
Americas — Organic Growth downstream_demand DR Horton Inventories DHI UN EQUITY bs_inventories 33 0.737892 1 positive 0.303164 0.833333 0.000027 False
Americas — Organic Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 32 0.533143 4 positive -0.013132 0.500000 0.006715 False

Asia Pacific — Organic Growth

strict n=1lead mix +1Q=1single-source leading signal 1/1 (lower breadth)active sources at latest target 1/1forward-active source lines shown 0/1latest aligned signal z -1.0 at 26 Q2last target-overlap z -1.0 at 26 Q2forward coverage beyond latest target 0Qaggregate observations 36 / target overlap 35

Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signal-2.4-1.00.41.93.314 Q116 Q319 Q121 Q223 Q426 Q2
Composite zComposite zDR Horton · +1Q · positiveDR Horton+1Q · positive-2.4-1.00.31.73.117 Q319 Q221 Q122 Q424 Q326 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Asia Pacific — Organic Growth downstream_demand DR Horton Revenue | Total Revenue DHI UN EQUITY is_comp_sales 35 0.746736 1 positive 0.450896 0.833333 0.000011 False

EMEA — Organic Growth

strict n=4lead mix +1Q=3, +3Q=1minimum aggregate breadth 1/4active sources at latest target 4/4forward-active source lines shown 1/4latest aligned signal z -0.3 at 26 Q2last target-overlap z -0.3 at 26 Q2forward coverage beyond latest target 3Qdashed forward signal z -0.3 at 27 Q1; active sources 1/4 (partial coverage)aggregate observations 36 / target overlap 32

Low-breadth forward warning: 26 Q3 1/4 (Home Depot); 26 Q4 1/4 (Home Depot); 27 Q1 1/4 (Home Depot). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signal-2.8-1.20.52.23.91/41/41/414 Q116 Q319 Q221 Q424 Q327 Q1
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalHome Depot · +3Q · positiveHome Depot+3Q · positive-1.7-0.50.82.03.31/41/41/418 Q220 Q121 Q423 Q325 Q227 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
EMEA — Organic Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Segment revenue: France LYB UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.411484 1 positive -0.080423 1.000000 0.085853 False
EMEA — Organic Growth industry_growth Geberit Segment revenue: Piping Systems GEBN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.373379 1 positive 0.264422 0.916667 0.238670 True
EMEA — Organic Growth channel_inventory Home Depot Segment revenue: Hardlines HD UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.678818 3 positive 0.397444 0.600000 0.001101 False
EMEA — Organic Growth upstream_input Dow Cost of Revenue DOW UN EQUITY is_cogs_to_fe_and_pp_and_g 32 0.595464 1 positive 0.252359 0.833333 0.006480 False

Group — Organic Growth

strict n=3lead mix +1Q=2, +3Q=1minimum aggregate breadth 1/3active sources at latest target 2/3forward-active source lines shown 1/3latest aligned signal z -1.3 at 26 Q2last target-overlap z -1.3 at 26 Q2forward coverage beyond latest target 2Qdashed forward signal z -1.0 at 26 Q4; active sources 1/3 (partial coverage)aggregate observations 38 / target overlap 36

Low-breadth forward warning: 26 Q3 1/3 (DR Horton); 26 Q4 1/3 (DR Horton). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signal-3.3-1.50.32.13.91/31/314 Q116 Q319 Q121 Q424 Q226 Q4
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalDR Horton · +3Q · positiveDR Horton+3Q · positive-2.8-1.30.31.83.41/31/317 Q319 Q221 Q223 Q125 Q126 Q4
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand DR Horton Home Sales DHI UN EQUITY is_cogs_to_fe_and_pp_and_g 34 0.582619 3 positive 0.268588 0.750000 0.010796 False
Group — Organic Growth industry_growth RPM International Segment revenue: Specialty Products Group RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 34 0.569903 1 positive -0.329583 0.666667 0.003473 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Maserati > Vehicle Sales (Units) | Total Vehicles Sold > Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY number_of_vehicles_sold 28 0.580064 1 positive 0.183816 0.750000 0.010927 False

Reported Growth Targets Back to top

Reported/as-reported growth target vectors and their forecast-qualified leading relationships.

Positive-lead historical indicator view for the reported growth basis.

Construction Industry — Reported Growth

strict n=13lead mix +1Q=4, +2Q=2, +3Q=4, +4Q=3minimum aggregate breadth 1/13active sources at latest target 13/13forward-active source lines shown 13/13latest aligned signal z -0.9 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.9 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 5Qdashed forward signal z 0.8 at 27 Q2; active sources 1/13 (partial coverage)aggregate observations 42 / target overlap 37

Low-breadth forward warning: 27 Q2 1/13 (Lowes). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signal-2.5-1.3-0.11.12.313/139/137/132/131/1315 Q217 Q420 Q122 Q324 Q427 Q2
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalLowes · +4Q · positiveLowes+4Q · positiveAmazon · +4Q · positiveAmazon+4Q · positiveStellantis · +4Q · positiveStellantis+4Q · positiveCemex · +3Q · positiveCemex+3Q · positiveMicrosoft · +3Q · inverseMicrosoft+3Q · inverseHeidelberg Materials · +3Q · positiveHeidelberg Materials+3Q · positiveVolkswagen · +3Q · positiveVolkswagen+3Q · positiveRPM International · +2Q · positiveRPM International+2Q · positiveMartin Marietta Materials · +2Q · positiveMartin Marietta Materials+2Q · positiveHolcim · +1Q · positiveHolcim+1Q · positiveRockwool · +1Q · positiveRockwool+1Q · positiveBASF · +1Q · positiveBASF+1Q · positiveLyondellBasell · +1Q · positiveLyondellBasell+1Q · positive-3.6-1.80.12.03.813/139/137/132/131/1317 Q119 Q121 Q123 Q225 Q227 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth RPM International Segment revenue: Latin America RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 29 0.629175 2 positive 0.224286 0.666667 0.001843 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 32 0.634933 4 positive 0.240999 0.666667 0.005309 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Amazon Segment revenue: Retail Third-Party Seller Services AMZN UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 32 0.519846 4 positive 0.197469 0.666667 0.030726 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth Rockwool Eastern Europe ROCKB DC EQUITY sales_rev_turn 31 0.684870 1 positive 0.238131 0.666667 0.000257 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth channel_inventory Lowes Cost of Goods Sold LOW UN EQUITY cb_is_cogs 31 0.560166 4 positive 0.215095 0.666667 0.006292 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Microsoft Cost of Revenue > As % of Revenue MSFT UW EQUITY cogs_to_net_sales 29 -0.437463 3 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.136464 0.666667 0.061725 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Volkswagen Segment revenue: Sport Luxury brand group VOW3 GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn 33 0.363238 3 positive 0.019740 0.666667 0.096046 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth Holcim Net Sales | Revenue HOLN SE EQUITY is_comp_sales 33 0.748302 1 positive 0.545632 0.916667 0.000020 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Martin Marietta Materials Revenue | Total Revenue MLM UN EQUITY is_comp_sales 34 0.566036 2 positive 0.169295 0.666667 0.013565 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth Cemex Total Revenue CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY is_comp_sales 33 0.617195 3 positive 0.217068 0.666667 0.001173 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth upstream_input BASF Chemicals > Capital Expenditure BAS GY EQUITY is_capex_as_reported 31 0.521256 1 positive 0.074118 0.666667 0.031669 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Revenue Growth (Organic) > Asia Pacific HEI GY EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 37 0.432214 3 positive -0.045172 0.666667 0.016992 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Segment revenue: Technology LYB UN EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 35 0.428043 1 positive 0.160894 0.666667 0.041252 False

Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth

strict n=11lead mix +1Q=5, +2Q=4, +3Q=2minimum aggregate breadth 1/11active sources at latest target 11/11forward-active source lines shown 10/11latest aligned signal z -0.5 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.5 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 3Qdashed forward signal z 0.1 at 26 Q4; active sources 2/11 (partial coverage)aggregate observations 38 / target overlap 35

Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signal-2.3-1.2-0.11.02.110/117/112/1115 Q217 Q319 Q422 Q224 Q326 Q4
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zDow · +3Q · positiveDow+3Q · positiveCemex · +3Q · positiveCemex+3Q · positiveBASF · +2Q · positiveBASF+2Q · positiveHeidelberg Materials · +1Q · positiveHeidelberg Materials+1Q · positiveLyondellBasell · +2Q · positiveLyondellBasell+2Q · positiveAmazon · +2Q · positiveAmazon+2Q · positiveToyota Motor · +2Q · positiveToyota Motor+2Q · positiveRPM International · +1Q · positiveRPM International+1Q · positiveNippon Paint Holdings · +1Q · positiveNippon Paint Holdings+1Q · positiveLennar · +1Q · positiveLennar+1Q · positive-3.0-1.20.62.34.110/117/112/1117 Q319 Q221 Q223 Q125 Q126 Q4
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth industry_growth Saint-Gobain Segment revenue: High Performance Solutions SGO FP EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.809339 1 positive 0.485826 0.666667 2.579878e-06 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Performance Materials BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn 27 0.806905 2 positive 0.568944 0.636364 1.969598e-06 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth downstream_demand Toyota Motor Asia > Revenue Incl. Intersegment Revenue 7203 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 29 0.609888 2 positive 0.031577 0.500000 1.511024e-03 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth downstream_demand Nippon Paint Holdings Segment revenue: Paints & Coating Business 4612 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.754372 1 positive 0.304134 0.700000 1.111784e-04 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth upstream_input Dow Segment revenue: Asia Pacific DOW UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 30 0.832071 3 positive 0.472888 0.666667 1.290410e-07 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Segment revenue: Electronic Component Parts for Equipment in Various Other Industries HEI UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 24 0.745424 1 positive 0.346705 0.875000 1.814432e-04 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth industry_growth Cemex Segment revenue: South/Central America & Caribbean CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY sales_rev_turn 33 0.635653 3 positive 0.347073 0.500000 2.627988e-04 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Cost of Sales LYB UN EQUITY is_cog_and_ss_gaap 34 0.733714 2 positive 0.520340 0.500000 3.172130e-06 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth industry_growth RPM International Cost of Revenue RPM UN EQUITY cb_is_cogs 35 0.794340 1 positive 0.573743 0.583333 6.870258e-07 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth downstream_demand Lennar Inventories LEN UN EQUITY bs_inventories 35 0.732110 1 positive 0.582770 0.833333 1.620206e-05 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth downstream_demand Amazon Amazon Web Services (AWS) AMZN UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 34 0.675050 2 positive 0.616622 0.833333 1.111784e-04 False

Group — Reported Growth

strict n=13lead mix +1Q=3, +2Q=5, +3Q=2, +4Q=3minimum aggregate breadth 1/13active sources at latest target 13/13forward-active source lines shown 13/13latest aligned signal z -0.7 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.7 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 5Qdashed forward signal z 0.8 at 27 Q2; active sources 1/13 (partial coverage)aggregate observations 40 / target overlap 34

Low-breadth forward warning: 27 Q2 1/13 (Lowes). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signal-2.8-1.4-0.11.32.613/1310/135/132/131/1312 Q215 Q218 Q221 Q224 Q227 Q2
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalLowes · +4Q · positiveLowes+4Q · positiveAmazon · +4Q · positiveAmazon+4Q · positiveCemex · +3Q · positiveCemex+3Q · positiveStellantis · +4Q · positiveStellantis+4Q · positiveVolkswagen · +3Q · positiveVolkswagen+3Q · positiveLyondellBasell · +2Q · positiveLyondellBasell+2Q · positiveNippon Paint Holdings · +2Q · positiveNippon Paint Holdings+2Q · positiveRPM International · +2Q · positiveRPM International+2Q · positiveToyota Motor · +2Q · positiveToyota Motor+2Q · positiveBASF · +2Q · positiveBASF+2Q · positiveRockwool · +1Q · positiveRockwool+1Q · positiveGeberit · +1Q · positiveGeberit+1Q · positiveGeneral Motors · +1Q · inverseGeneral Motors+1Q · inverse-3.2-1.11.03.25.313/1310/135/132/131/1317 Q319 Q321 Q323 Q225 Q227 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group — Reported Growth industry_growth RPM International Segment revenue: Latin America RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.647532 2 positive 0.130245 0.750000 0.001661 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Toyota Motor Total Vehicle Wholesales > Rest of World 7203 JT EQUITY number_of_vehicles_sold 25 0.506272 2 positive -0.050713 0.666667 0.033218 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Volkswagen Vehicles Delivered (w/ JVs) > Trucks/Traton Brand Group VOW3 GY EQUITY number_of_vehicles_sold 24 0.627967 3 positive 0.050596 0.625000 0.007799 False
Group — Reported Growth industry_growth Rockwool Segment revenue: Western Europe ROCKB DC EQUITY sales_rev_turn 34 0.594760 1 positive 0.186514 0.750000 0.001661 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Amazon Segment revenue: Retail Third-Party Seller Services AMZN UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 31 0.579439 4 positive 0.311402 0.750000 0.007582 False
Group — Reported Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Revenue | Total Revenue LYB UN EQUITY is_comp_sales 33 0.727876 2 positive 0.318708 0.750000 0.000032 False
Group — Reported Growth upstream_input BASF Surface Technologies > Capital Expenditure BAS GY EQUITY is_capex_as_reported 22 0.495574 2 positive 0.166398 0.500000 0.034562 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand General Motors Vehicles Sold GM UN EQUITY number_of_vehicles_sold 34 -0.363869 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.115637 0.750000 0.084066 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Nippon Paint Holdings Segment revenue: Paints & Coating Business 4612 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn 24 0.650868 2 positive 0.234557 0.625000 0.007582 False
Group — Reported Growth channel_inventory Lowes Cost of Goods Sold LOW UN EQUITY cb_is_cogs 30 0.598912 4 positive 0.313174 0.750000 0.003768 False
Group — Reported Growth industry_growth Geberit Segment revenue: America GEBN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn 25 0.460615 1 positive 0.098728 0.666667 0.044154 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 31 0.643028 4 positive 0.192131 0.750000 0.004209 False
Group — Reported Growth industry_growth Cemex Total Revenue CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY is_comp_sales 32 0.659057 3 positive 0.060455 0.750000 0.000984 False

Forecast Source Catalog Back to top

Organic Growth Target Sources

target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Americas — Organic Growth industry_growth Rockwool Segment revenue: Western Europe ROCKB DC EQUITY sales_rev_turn 33 0.620130 1 positive 0.714742 0.666667 0.001895 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth downstream_demand DR Horton Southeast DHI UN EQUITY number_of_homes_in_backlog 33 0.640590 4 positive 0.657058 0.750000 0.002372 False
Americas — Organic Growth industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Segment revenue: Specialty Products HEI UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 22 -0.711572 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite -0.116825 0.500000 0.002180 False
Americas — Organic Growth upstream_input Dow Segment revenue: Coatings & Performance Monomers DOW UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.797234 2 positive 0.193086 0.700000 0.000026 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Organic Revenue Growth (%) | Flight Support Group HEI UN EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 36 -0.500552 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.212403 0.583333 0.022518 False
Americas — Organic Growth industry_growth Geberit Segment revenue: Far East/Pacific GEBN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.780466 1 positive 0.363655 0.700000 0.000082 False
Americas — Organic Growth industry_growth Saint-Gobain Spain-Italy SGO FP EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 25 0.561242 1 positive 0.437280 0.666667 0.017251 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth downstream_demand Amazon Segment revenue: Online Stores AMZN UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 32 0.390728 4 positive 0.243592 0.583333 0.063599 False
EMEA — Organic Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Segment revenue: France LYB UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.411484 1 positive -0.080423 1.000000 0.085853 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Intermediates and Derivatives > Ethylene Oxide & Derivatives LYB UN EQUITY shipment_volume 33 0.449432 3 positive 0.096136 0.750000 0.069544 False
EMEA — Organic Growth industry_growth Geberit Segment revenue: Piping Systems GEBN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.373379 1 positive 0.264422 0.916667 0.238670 True
Americas — Organic Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Segment revenue: The Netherlands LYB UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 27 0.731579 2 positive 0.284661 0.545455 0.000099 False
Americas — Organic Growth upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Materials BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn 27 0.758636 2 positive 0.602097 0.545455 0.000054 False
Americas — Organic Growth downstream_demand Nippon Paint Holdings Segment revenue: Paints & Coating Business 4612 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.688798 1 positive 0.007033 0.500000 0.000560 False
Americas — Organic Growth downstream_demand Microsoft Segment revenue: More Personal Computing MSFT UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 32 0.358823 4 positive -0.425009 0.583333 0.061346 False
Americas — Organic Growth channel_inventory Home Depot Segment revenue: International HD UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.719582 3 positive 0.754458 0.600000 0.000411 False
Americas — Organic Growth channel_inventory Ferguson Sales Carried Forward FERG UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 29 0.391250 2 positive 0.291173 0.583333 0.061438 False
Americas — Organic Growth downstream_demand DR Horton Inventories DHI UN EQUITY bs_inventories 33 0.737892 1 positive 0.303164 0.833333 0.000027 False
EMEA — Organic Growth channel_inventory Home Depot Segment revenue: Hardlines HD UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.678818 3 positive 0.397444 0.600000 0.001101 False
EMEA — Organic Growth upstream_input Dow Cost of Revenue DOW UN EQUITY is_cogs_to_fe_and_pp_and_g 32 0.595464 1 positive 0.252359 0.833333 0.006480 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Organic Growth downstream_demand Toyota Motor Asia > Revenue Incl. Intersegment Revenue 7203 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 31 0.574641 1 positive -0.136041 0.666667 0.011556 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth industry_growth Rockwool Organic (%) ROCKB DC EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 25 0.799854 1 positive 0.516780 0.555556 0.000038 False
Asia Pacific — Organic Growth downstream_demand DR Horton Revenue | Total Revenue DHI UN EQUITY is_comp_sales 35 0.746736 1 positive 0.450896 0.833333 0.000011 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand DR Horton Home Sales DHI UN EQUITY is_cogs_to_fe_and_pp_and_g 34 0.582619 3 positive 0.268588 0.750000 0.010796 False
Group — Organic Growth industry_growth RPM International Segment revenue: Specialty Products Group RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 34 0.569903 1 positive -0.329583 0.666667 0.003473 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Organic Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 35 0.408166 1 positive 0.227583 0.500000 0.079618 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Organic Growth industry_growth Cemex Total Revenue CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY is_comp_sales 36 0.605739 1 positive -0.724186 0.583333 0.001086 False
Americas — Organic Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 32 0.533143 4 positive -0.013132 0.500000 0.006715 False
Construction Industry — Organic Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 34 0.439514 3 positive 0.259458 0.583333 0.025681 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Maserati > Vehicle Sales (Units) | Total Vehicles Sold > Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY number_of_vehicles_sold 28 0.580064 1 positive 0.183816 0.750000 0.010927 False

Reported Growth Target Sources

target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth industry_growth Saint-Gobain Segment revenue: High Performance Solutions SGO FP EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.809339 1 positive 0.485826 0.666667 2.579878e-06 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Performance Materials BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn 27 0.806905 2 positive 0.568944 0.636364 1.969598e-06 False
Group — Reported Growth industry_growth RPM International Segment revenue: Latin America RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 28 0.647532 2 positive 0.130245 0.750000 1.660789e-03 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth downstream_demand Toyota Motor Asia > Revenue Incl. Intersegment Revenue 7203 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 29 0.609888 2 positive 0.031577 0.500000 1.511024e-03 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth downstream_demand Nippon Paint Holdings Segment revenue: Paints & Coating Business 4612 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn 26 0.754372 1 positive 0.304134 0.700000 1.111784e-04 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth upstream_input Dow Segment revenue: Asia Pacific DOW UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 30 0.832071 3 positive 0.472888 0.666667 1.290410e-07 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Toyota Motor Total Vehicle Wholesales > Rest of World 7203 JT EQUITY number_of_vehicles_sold 25 0.506272 2 positive -0.050713 0.666667 3.321788e-02 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth RPM International Segment revenue: Latin America RPM UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 29 0.629175 2 positive 0.224286 0.666667 1.843263e-03 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Segment revenue: Electronic Component Parts for Equipment in Various Other Industries HEI UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn 24 0.745424 1 positive 0.346705 0.875000 1.814432e-04 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth industry_growth Cemex Segment revenue: South/Central America & Caribbean CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY sales_rev_turn 33 0.635653 3 positive 0.347073 0.500000 2.627988e-04 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Cost of Sales LYB UN EQUITY is_cog_and_ss_gaap 34 0.733714 2 positive 0.520340 0.500000 3.172130e-06 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Volkswagen Vehicles Delivered (w/ JVs) > Trucks/Traton Brand Group VOW3 GY EQUITY number_of_vehicles_sold 24 0.627967 3 positive 0.050596 0.625000 7.799278e-03 False
Group — Reported Growth industry_growth Rockwool Segment revenue: Western Europe ROCKB DC EQUITY sales_rev_turn 34 0.594760 1 positive 0.186514 0.750000 1.660789e-03 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 32 0.634933 4 positive 0.240999 0.666667 5.309252e-03 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Amazon Segment revenue: Retail Third-Party Seller Services AMZN UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 31 0.579439 4 positive 0.311402 0.750000 7.581987e-03 False
Group — Reported Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Revenue | Total Revenue LYB UN EQUITY is_comp_sales 33 0.727876 2 positive 0.318708 0.750000 3.169908e-05 False
Group — Reported Growth upstream_input BASF Surface Technologies > Capital Expenditure BAS GY EQUITY is_capex_as_reported 22 0.495574 2 positive 0.166398 0.500000 3.456205e-02 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand General Motors Vehicles Sold GM UN EQUITY number_of_vehicles_sold 34 -0.363869 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.115637 0.750000 8.406556e-02 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Amazon Segment revenue: Retail Third-Party Seller Services AMZN UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 32 0.519846 4 positive 0.197469 0.666667 3.072557e-02 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Nippon Paint Holdings Segment revenue: Paints & Coating Business 4612 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn 24 0.650868 2 positive 0.234557 0.625000 7.581987e-03 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth industry_growth RPM International Cost of Revenue RPM UN EQUITY cb_is_cogs 35 0.794340 1 positive 0.573743 0.583333 6.870258e-07 False
Group — Reported Growth channel_inventory Lowes Cost of Goods Sold LOW UN EQUITY cb_is_cogs 30 0.598912 4 positive 0.313174 0.750000 3.768014e-03 False
Group — Reported Growth industry_growth Geberit Segment revenue: America GEBN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn 25 0.460615 1 positive 0.098728 0.666667 4.415411e-02 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth Rockwool Eastern Europe ROCKB DC EQUITY sales_rev_turn 31 0.684870 1 positive 0.238131 0.666667 2.565617e-04 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth channel_inventory Lowes Cost of Goods Sold LOW UN EQUITY cb_is_cogs 31 0.560166 4 positive 0.215095 0.666667 6.291858e-03 False
Group — Reported Growth downstream_demand Stellantis Segment revenue: Maserati STLAM IM EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 31 0.643028 4 positive 0.192131 0.750000 4.208879e-03 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth downstream_demand Lennar Inventories LEN UN EQUITY bs_inventories 35 0.732110 1 positive 0.582770 0.833333 1.620206e-05 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Microsoft Cost of Revenue > As % of Revenue MSFT UW EQUITY cogs_to_net_sales 29 -0.437463 3 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.136464 0.666667 6.172475e-02 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Volkswagen Segment revenue: Sport Luxury brand group VOW3 GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn 33 0.363238 3 positive 0.019740 0.666667 9.604569e-02 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth Holcim Net Sales | Revenue HOLN SE EQUITY is_comp_sales 33 0.748302 1 positive 0.545632 0.916667 1.992262e-05 False
Industrial Manufacturing — Reported Growth downstream_demand Amazon Amazon Web Services (AWS) AMZN UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn 34 0.675050 2 positive 0.616622 0.833333 1.111784e-04 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth downstream_demand Martin Marietta Materials Revenue | Total Revenue MLM UN EQUITY is_comp_sales 34 0.566036 2 positive 0.169295 0.666667 1.356540e-02 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth Cemex Total Revenue CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY is_comp_sales 33 0.617195 3 positive 0.217068 0.666667 1.172759e-03 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth upstream_input BASF Chemicals > Capital Expenditure BAS GY EQUITY is_capex_as_reported 31 0.521256 1 positive 0.074118 0.666667 3.166887e-02 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth industry_growth Heidelberg Materials Revenue Growth (Organic) > Asia Pacific HEI GY EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate 37 0.432214 3 positive -0.045172 0.666667 1.699198e-02 False
Group — Reported Growth industry_growth Cemex Total Revenue CEMEXCPO MF EQUITY is_comp_sales 32 0.659057 3 positive 0.060455 0.750000 9.838957e-04 False
Construction Industry — Reported Growth upstream_input LyondellBasell Segment revenue: Technology LYB UN EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev 35 0.428043 1 positive 0.160894 0.666667 4.125161e-02 False

Run Metadata Back to top

Approved relationships67
Approved companies23
Composite methodone metric per company-target; selected-lead sign alignment; equal-weight mean of available approved companies; minimum one active source; one-source forward points retained but not presented as diversified composite evidence
Coverage displayfilled markers for full coverage; open markers for valid partial coverage; every post-target aggregate observation dashed and labelled active n / approved n; one-source points overlaid in amber with a visible warning
Raw source displayall sources active in at least one forward period; retained uninverted and explicitly labelled when inverse
Target-basis splitOrganic Growth: 6 score-ready targets / 6 with qualified leads / 30 relationships; Reported Growth: 3 score-ready targets / 3 with qualified leads / 37 relationships