Otis Worldwide V3 Leading Indicators Dashboard

Generated: 2026-07-23

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V3 forecast scope: AS-led forecast-qualified relationships only. Each candidate leads its Otis Worldwide target by one to four quarters and passed the locked rolling-origin qualification gates.

Target history: Otis Worldwide Corporation standalone direct target history spans 2020 Q1-2026 Q1. The 5 configured targets each contain 25 quarters and meet the 20-quarter floor but remain below the preferred 32-quarter standard. No predecessor stitching was used.

Sections
Lead-Aligned Composite ChartsOrganic Growth TargetsForecast Source CatalogRun Metadata

Lead-Aligned Composite Charts Back to top

Forecast-qualified V3 sources are shifted forward by their selected empirical +1Q..+4Q lead to the target quarter they predict, then inverse relationships are sign-aligned before the signal is averaged. The signal is the equal-weight mean of available approved sources and requires at least one active source. Filled markers denote full approved-source coverage and open markers denote valid partial coverage. Every dashed post-target point is labelled active n / approved n. A one-source forward point is retained but overlaid with an amber marker and explicitly labelled as a single-source forward signal, not diversified composite evidence. The right chart shows every approved source that actually contributes to at least one forward point rather than a historical-correlation top-five subset. A valid aggregate remains visible inside the target-history window when the target quarter is missing. Primary target and aggregate paths connect between observed points across missing spans without adding observation markers or filling data; raw source diagnostics retain their actual gaps. Quarters with no active approved source remain blank. The underlying forward observations were available one to four quarters earlier. Raw, uninverted source lines remain visible and inverse rows are labelled in the charts and diagnostic tables. Organic and reported target bases are separated below because they are distinct target series. The isolated black diamond is Bloomberg target NTM/LTM revenue consensus, standardized against the displayed target history and positioned at latest actual +4Q; it is display-only and never enters the relationship signal. These are relationship indicators, not the full Otis Worldwide earnings model.

Organic Growth Targets Back to top

Governed organic-growth target vectors and their forecast-qualified leading relationships.

Positive-lead historical indicator view for the organic growth basis.

Group — Organic Growth

strict n=7lead mix +1Q=5, +4Q=2minimum aggregate breadth 1/7active sources at latest target 7/7forward-active source lines shown 7/7latest aligned signal z -0.1 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.1 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 4Qdashed forward signal z 0.4 at 27 Q1; active sources 2/7 (partial coverage)NTM consensus +6.0%; z +0.7aggregate observations 29 / target overlap 25

Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalTarget NTM revenue proxyTarget NTM revenue proxy-2.5-1.10.41.83.27/72/72/72/7Target NTM revenue proxy: +6.0%; z +0.72; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-15; reported_revenue_proxy_for_organic_growth_target; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q20 Q121 Q322 Q424 Q225 Q327 Q1
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zArcelorMittal SA · +4Q · inverseArcelorMittal SA+4Q · inverseKONE Oyj · +4Q · inverseKONE Oyj+4Q · inverseFreeport-McMoRan Inc · +1Q · inverseFreeport-McMoRan Inc+1Q · inverseMitsubishi Electric Corp · +1Q · positiveMitsubishi Electric Corp+1Q · positiveHindalco Industries Ltd · +1Q · positiveHindalco Industries Ltd+1Q · positiveHitachi Ltd · +1Q · positiveHitachi Ltd+1Q · positiveJohnson Controls International · +1Q · positiveJohnson Controls Internat…+1Q · positive-3.5-1.01.43.96.47/72/72/72/717 Q319 Q321 Q223 Q225 Q127 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Johnson Controls International Revenue | Total Revenue JCI UN EQUITY is_comp_sales company_reported_metric 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 JCI UN EQUITY is_comp_sales relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.411570 1 positive 0.142617 0.666667 0.555415 True
Group — Organic Growth industry_growth KONE Oyj Capital Expenditures KNEBV FH EQUITY cf_cap_expend_prpty_add company_reported_metric 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth 32 0 32 KNEBV FH EQUITY cf_cap_expend_prpty_add relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth -0.600225 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite -0.235508 0.666667 0.096885 False
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input ArcelorMittal SA Production (M-mt) — Steel — Europe (kt) MT NA EQUITY amount_produced_in_weight company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy 36 0 36 MT NA EQUITY amount_produced_in_weight relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy -0.686929 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.160810 0.666667 0.020860 False
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input Freeport-McMoRan Inc Sales (lbs) — North America — Morenci FCX UN EQUITY weight_products_sold company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy 36 0 36 FCX UN EQUITY weight_products_sold relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy -0.594250 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite -0.451325 0.666667 0.188827 True
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input Hindalco Industries Ltd Shipment (Metric Ton) — Aluminium Downstream HNDL IS EQUITY shipment_volume company_modl_segment 24 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume 26 0 26 HNDL IS EQUITY shipment_volume relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume 0.493392 1 positive 0.218757 0.625000 0.325547 True
Group — Organic Growth industry_growth Hitachi Ltd Segment revenue: Smart Life & Ecofriendly Systems (Hitachi GLS) 6501 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 6501 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.487549 1 positive -0.139301 0.666667 0.240414 True
Group — Organic Growth industry_growth Mitsubishi Electric Corp Segment revenue: Asia 6503 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 6503 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.550845 1 positive 0.118020 0.666667 0.138316 True

Maintenance & Repair — Organic Growth

strict n=1lead mix +1Q=1single-source leading signal 1/1 (lower breadth)active sources at latest target 1/1forward-active source lines shown 1/1latest aligned signal z -0.3 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.3 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 1Qdashed forward signal z 0.3 at 26 Q2; active sources 1/1 (full coverage)aggregate observations 26 / target overlap 25

Low-breadth forward warning: 26 Q2 1/1 (KONE Oyj). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signal-3.9-2.3-0.70.92.51/120 Q121 Q222 Q323 Q425 Q126 Q2
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalKONE Oyj · +1Q · positiveKONE Oyj+1Q · positive-3.9-2.3-0.70.92.51/116 Q318 Q320 Q322 Q224 Q226 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Maintenance & Repair — Organic Growth industry_growth KONE Oyj Service (Previously Maintenance) — Revenue — Constant Currency Growth Rate(%) KNEBV FH EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate company_modl_segment 25 direct_organic_growth_rate 40 40 0 0.595225 1 positive -0.163843 1.0 0.020357 False

Modernization — Organic Growth

strict n=1lead mix +1Q=1single-source leading signal 1/1 (lower breadth)active sources at latest target 1/1forward-active source lines shown 1/1latest aligned signal z -1.0 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -1.0 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 1Qdashed forward signal z 4.2 at 26 Q2; active sources 1/1 (full coverage)aggregate observations 23 / target overlap 22

Low-breadth forward warning: 26 Q2 1/1 (Schindler Holding AG). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signal-2.3-0.51.23.04.81/120 Q121 Q222 Q323 Q425 Q126 Q2
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalSchindler Holding AG · +1Q · positiveSchindler Holding AG+1Q · positive-1.8-0.21.53.14.71/118 Q320 Q121 Q323 Q224 Q426 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Modernization — Organic Growth industry_growth Schindler Holding AG Capital Expenditures SCHN SE EQUITY headline_capex company_reported_metric 22 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth 29 0 29 SCHN SE EQUITY headline_capex relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth 0.584677 1 positive 0.068227 1.0 0.036044 False

New Equipment — Organic Growth

strict n=4lead mix +1Q=2, +3Q=1, +4Q=1minimum aggregate breadth 1/4active sources at latest target 4/4forward-active source lines shown 4/4latest aligned signal z -0.9 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.9 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 4Qdashed forward signal z 0.5 at 27 Q1; active sources 1/4 (partial coverage)aggregate observations 29 / target overlap 25

Low-breadth forward warning: 27 Q1 1/4 (ArcelorMittal SA). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signal-1.7-0.50.61.83.04/42/42/41/420 Q121 Q322 Q424 Q225 Q327 Q1
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalArcelorMittal SA · +4Q · inverseArcelorMittal SA+4Q · inverseKONE Oyj · +3Q · inverseKONE Oyj+3Q · inverseFreeport-McMoRan Inc · +1Q · positiveFreeport-McMoRan Inc+1Q · positiveHitachi Ltd · +1Q · positiveHitachi Ltd+1Q · positive-4.0-2.1-0.31.53.34/42/42/41/417 Q119 Q121 Q123 Q125 Q127 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
New Equipment — Organic Growth upstream_input Freeport-McMoRan Inc Gold — Production FCX UN EQUITY amount_produced_in_weight company_modl_segment 23 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy 34 0 34 FCX UN EQUITY amount_produced_in_weight relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy 0.556711 1 positive 0.569084 1.000000 0.132865 True
New Equipment — Organic Growth industry_growth KONE Oyj Service (Previously Maintenance) — Revenue — Constant Currency Growth Rate(%) KNEBV FH EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate company_modl_segment 25 direct_organic_growth_rate 40 40 0 -0.719971 3 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.488305 1.000000 0.009522 False
New Equipment — Organic Growth upstream_input ArcelorMittal SA Total Crude Steel Production (M-mt) | Production (M-mt) | Total Steel Production (M-mt) MT NA EQUITY steel_production company_reported_metric 23 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume 34 0 34 MT NA EQUITY steel_production relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume -0.712225 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.444716 0.714286 0.018444 False
New Equipment — Organic Growth industry_growth Hitachi Ltd Segment revenue: Building Systems 6501 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 32 0 32 6501 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.528070 1 positive 0.278366 0.888889 0.083913 False

Service — Organic Growth

strict n=3lead mix +1Q=3minimum aggregate breadth 1/3active sources at latest target 3/3forward-active source lines shown 3/3latest aligned signal z -0.2 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.2 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 1Qdashed forward signal z -0.2 at 26 Q2; active sources 3/3 (full coverage)aggregate observations 26 / target overlap 25

Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signal-3.6-2.0-0.51.02.63/320 Q121 Q222 Q323 Q425 Q126 Q2
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zJohnson Controls International · +1Q · positiveJohnson Controls Internat…+1Q · positiveKONE Oyj · +1Q · positiveKONE Oyj+1Q · positiveSchindler Holding AG · +1Q · positiveSchindler Holding AG+1Q · positive-4.1-2.3-0.61.22.93/316 Q318 Q320 Q322 Q224 Q226 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Service — Organic Growth industry_growth KONE Oyj Service (Previously Maintenance) — Revenue — Constant Currency Growth Rate(%) KNEBV FH EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate company_modl_segment 25 direct_organic_growth_rate 40 40 0 0.612003 1 positive 0.078053 1.0 0.082730 False
Service — Organic Growth industry_growth Schindler Holding AG Revenue | Total Revenue SCHN SE EQUITY is_comp_sales company_reported_metric 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 SCHN SE EQUITY is_comp_sales relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.424354 1 positive -0.533539 1.0 0.163195 True
Service — Organic Growth downstream_demand Johnson Controls International Organic Growth (%) JCI UN EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate company_reported_metric 22 direct_organic_growth_rate 36 36 0 0.760458 1 positive -0.004151 1.0 0.001438 False

Forecast Source Catalog Back to top

Organic Growth Target Sources

target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Johnson Controls International Revenue | Total Revenue JCI UN EQUITY is_comp_sales company_reported_metric 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 JCI UN EQUITY is_comp_sales relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.411570 1 positive 0.142617 0.666667 0.555415 True
Group — Organic Growth industry_growth KONE Oyj Capital Expenditures KNEBV FH EQUITY cf_cap_expend_prpty_add company_reported_metric 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth 32 0 32 KNEBV FH EQUITY cf_cap_expend_prpty_add relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth -0.600225 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite -0.235508 0.666667 0.096885 False
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input ArcelorMittal SA Production (M-mt) — Steel — Europe (kt) MT NA EQUITY amount_produced_in_weight company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy 36 0 36 MT NA EQUITY amount_produced_in_weight relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy -0.686929 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.160810 0.666667 0.020860 False
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input Freeport-McMoRan Inc Sales (lbs) — North America — Morenci FCX UN EQUITY weight_products_sold company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy 36 0 36 FCX UN EQUITY weight_products_sold relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy -0.594250 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite -0.451325 0.666667 0.188827 True
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input Hindalco Industries Ltd Shipment (Metric Ton) — Aluminium Downstream HNDL IS EQUITY shipment_volume company_modl_segment 24 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume 26 0 26 HNDL IS EQUITY shipment_volume relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume 0.493392 1 positive 0.218757 0.625000 0.325547 True
Group — Organic Growth industry_growth Hitachi Ltd Segment revenue: Smart Life & Ecofriendly Systems (Hitachi GLS) 6501 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 6501 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.487549 1 positive -0.139301 0.666667 0.240414 True
Group — Organic Growth industry_growth Mitsubishi Electric Corp Segment revenue: Asia 6503 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 6503 JT EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.550845 1 positive 0.118020 0.666667 0.138316 True
Maintenance & Repair — Organic Growth industry_growth KONE Oyj Service (Previously Maintenance) — Revenue — Constant Currency Growth Rate(%) KNEBV FH EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate company_modl_segment 25 direct_organic_growth_rate 40 40 0 0.595225 1 positive -0.163843 1.000000 0.020357 False
Modernization — Organic Growth industry_growth Schindler Holding AG Capital Expenditures SCHN SE EQUITY headline_capex company_reported_metric 22 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth 29 0 29 SCHN SE EQUITY headline_capex relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth 0.584677 1 positive 0.068227 1.000000 0.036044 False
New Equipment — Organic Growth upstream_input Freeport-McMoRan Inc Gold — Production FCX UN EQUITY amount_produced_in_weight company_modl_segment 23 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy 34 0 34 FCX UN EQUITY amount_produced_in_weight relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy 0.556711 1 positive 0.569084 1.000000 0.132865 True
New Equipment — Organic Growth industry_growth KONE Oyj Service (Previously Maintenance) — Revenue — Constant Currency Growth Rate(%) KNEBV FH EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate company_modl_segment 25 direct_organic_growth_rate 40 40 0 -0.719971 3 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.488305 1.000000 0.009522 False
New Equipment — Organic Growth upstream_input ArcelorMittal SA Total Crude Steel Production (M-mt) | Production (M-mt) | Total Steel Production (M-mt) MT NA EQUITY steel_production company_reported_metric 23 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume 34 0 34 MT NA EQUITY steel_production relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume -0.712225 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.444716 0.714286 0.018444 False
Service — Organic Growth industry_growth KONE Oyj Service (Previously Maintenance) — Revenue — Constant Currency Growth Rate(%) KNEBV FH EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate company_modl_segment 25 direct_organic_growth_rate 40 40 0 0.612003 1 positive 0.078053 1.000000 0.082730 False
Service — Organic Growth industry_growth Schindler Holding AG Revenue | Total Revenue SCHN SE EQUITY is_comp_sales company_reported_metric 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 SCHN SE EQUITY is_comp_sales relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.424354 1 positive -0.533539 1.000000 0.163195 True
New Equipment — Organic Growth industry_growth Hitachi Ltd Segment revenue: Building Systems 6501 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev company_modl_segment 25 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 32 0 32 6501 JT EQUITY is_rev_including_interseg_rev relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.528070 1 positive 0.278366 0.888889 0.083913 False
Service — Organic Growth downstream_demand Johnson Controls International Organic Growth (%) JCI UN EQUITY is_organic_growth_rate company_reported_metric 22 direct_organic_growth_rate 36 36 0 0.760458 1 positive -0.004151 1.000000 0.001438 False

Run Metadata Back to top

Approved relationships16
Approved companies8
Composite methodone metric per company-target; selected-lead sign alignment; equal-weight mean of available approved companies; minimum one active source; one-source forward points retained but not presented as diversified composite evidence
Coverage displayfilled markers for full coverage; open markers for valid partial coverage; every post-target aggregate observation dashed and labelled active n / approved n; one-source points overlaid in amber with a visible warning
Raw source displayall sources active in at least one forward period; retained uninverted and explicitly labelled when inverse
Target-basis splitOrganic Growth: 5 score-ready targets / 5 with qualified leads / 16 relationships