Givaudan V3 Quarterly YoY Relationship Signal

Company-only V3 scope: AS-led candidates passing the locked relationship contract are automatically approved. Macro, commodity/input-price, and text/commentary signals remain deferred. Historical qualification is recomputed at true same period; forecast timing is handled separately.

Executive Summary Back to top

What This Pack Is For

Givaudan target growth is compared with pre-labelled peer, demand, channel/inventory, and upstream company baskets using the V3 AS-led approval universe.

Analysis

Target and candidate vectors are quarter-versus-prior-year-quarter signals from the common field contracts. This is the relationship-scoring basis and is intentionally separate from the established V2 rolling-4Q growth dashboard.
Each approved source is standardized independently before the equal-weight available-source composite is calculated.
A composite requires at least one active approved source. Single-source composites are shown and explicitly identified by their 1/1 breadth; they should be read as lower-confidence signals. Filled markers show full coverage; open markers show valid partial coverage; quarters with no active source are left blank.
Primary target and aggregate paths connect between observed points across missing spans for readability, but no observation marker is drawn and missing values remain excluded from scoring.
Absolute target growth remains in the card metadata; all visible time-series charts use z-scores so mixed units are never averaged directly.
Correlations validate the semantic driver stack; they do not establish causality.

Primary Overview: Quarterly YoY Relationship Signal Back to top

Same-period z-score view. The left chart compares target momentum with the approved available-source composite; the right chart shows the same composite and the strongest bucket-diverse sources. The composite is the equal-weight mean of available approved sources and requires at least one active source. A 1/1 composite is displayed but is explicitly lower breadth than a multi-company signal. Filled markers denote full coverage and open markers denote valid partial coverage. A valid source composite remains visible inside the target-history window even when that target quarter is missing. Primary target and aggregate lines connect between observed points across missing spans without adding points or filling missing values; raw source diagnostics retain their actual gaps. Quarters with no active approved source remain blank. An isolated black diamond, when available, is the latest target NTM/LTM revenue consensus standardized against the displayed target history and positioned four quarters after the latest actual. Organic and quarterly-YoY targets label this explicitly as a revenue-consensus proxy. The marker is display-only and is excluded from scoring. Expand each source diagnostic to inspect every approved company and metric.

Group Revenue

sources n=5 / companies n=5Downstream demand=3, Upstream input=2minimum composite breadth 1/5active sources at latest target 5/5latest target actual -5.2%latest target z -1.8NTM consensus +7.2%; z +0.3latest composite z +0.5 at 26 Q1partial-coverage observations 15target/composite overlap 35 quarters

Segment source diagnostics

target	bucket	company	segment_or_metric	universe	field	source_type	corr_obs	same_q_corr	fdr_q_diagnostic	fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group Revenue	downstream_demand	Mondelez	Segment revenue: Cheese & Grocery	MDLZ UW EQUITY	sales_rev_turn	company_modl_segment	35	-0.746231	0.000012	False
Group Revenue	upstream_input	TotalEnergies	Europe & Central Asia	TTE FP EQUITY	total_production_world_mboe_dy	company_modl_segment	35	0.706797	0.000016	False
Group Revenue	upstream_input	BASF	Segment revenue: Care Chemicals	BAS GY EQUITY	sales_rev_turn	company_modl_segment	28	0.449629	0.027286	False
Group Revenue	downstream_demand	Nestle	Real Internal Growth (%)	NESN SE EQUITY	is_pct_sales_change_volume	company_modl_segment	35	0.660181	0.000238	False
Group Revenue	downstream_demand	Procter & Gamble	Grooming — Revenue	PG UN EQUITY	sales_rev_turn	company_modl_segment	27	-0.550763	0.012169	False

Fragrance & Beauty

sources n=0 / companies n=0minimum composite breadth 0/0latest target actual +14.1%latest target z +1.1NTM consensus +10.6%; z +0.4history 35 quarters

No candidate passed the true same-period dashboard qualification gates for this target.

Segment source diagnostics

No dashboard-approved relationship rows. The target remains visible because its governed organic-growth vector is score-ready.

Taste & Wellbeing

sources n=2 / companies n=2Downstream demand=2minimum composite breadth 1/2active sources at latest target 2/2latest target actual -2.1%latest target z -0.8NTM consensus +3.8%; z -0.1latest composite z +0.2 at 26 Q1partial-coverage observations 0target/composite overlap 35 quarters

Segment source diagnostics

target	bucket	company	segment_or_metric	universe	field	source_type	corr_obs	same_q_corr	fdr_q_diagnostic	fdr_above_10pct_reference
Taste & Wellbeing	downstream_demand	Mondelez	Segment revenue: Cheese & Grocery	MDLZ UW EQUITY	sales_rev_turn	company_modl_segment	35	-0.754781	0.000003	False
Taste & Wellbeing	downstream_demand	Nestle	Segment revenue: Powdered & Liquid Beverages	NESN SE EQUITY	sales_rev_turn	company_modl_segment	35	0.665654	0.000051	False

Run Metadata Back to top

Approval policy	as_led_auto_approve_v3_exact_rescore
Composite method	equal-weight mean of available individually standardized sources; minimum one active source; 1/1 composites shown as lower breadth
Coverage display	filled markers for full coverage; open markers for valid partial coverage; valid composites retained through missing target quarters; primary lines connect between observed points without inserting observations or markers
Timing	same period; no lead shifting
Relationship rows	7
Companies	5