Givaudan V3 Organic-Preferred Growth

Generated: 2026-07-23

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Company-only V3 scope: AS-led candidates passing the locked relationship contract are automatically approved. Macro, commodity/input-price, and text/commentary signals remain deferred. Historical qualification is recomputed at true same period; forecast timing is handled separately.

Sections
Executive SummaryPrimary Overview: Organic GrowthRun Metadata

Executive Summary Back to top

What This Pack Is For

Givaudan target growth is compared with pre-labelled peer, demand, channel/inventory, and upstream company baskets using the V3 AS-led approval universe.

Analysis

  • Organic-growth target vectors come from the governed local target contract, use the declared field/unit transform, preserve unresolved quarters, and are rescored against the AS semantic candidate pool shown here.
  • Each approved source is standardized independently before the equal-weight available-source composite is calculated.
  • A composite requires at least one active approved source. Single-source composites are shown and explicitly identified by their 1/1 breadth; they should be read as lower-confidence signals. Filled markers show full coverage; open markers show valid partial coverage; quarters with no active source are left blank.
  • Primary target and aggregate paths connect between observed points across missing spans for readability, but no observation marker is drawn and missing values remain excluded from scoring.
  • Absolute target growth remains in the card metadata; all visible time-series charts use z-scores so mixed units are never averaged directly.
  • Correlations validate the semantic driver stack; they do not establish causality.

Primary Overview: Organic Growth Back to top

Same-period z-score view. The left chart compares target momentum with the approved available-source composite; the right chart shows the same composite and the strongest bucket-diverse sources. The composite is the equal-weight mean of available approved sources and requires at least one active source. A 1/1 composite is displayed but is explicitly lower breadth than a multi-company signal. Filled markers denote full coverage and open markers denote valid partial coverage. A valid source composite remains visible inside the target-history window even when that target quarter is missing. Primary target and aggregate lines connect between observed points across missing spans without adding points or filling missing values; raw source diagnostics retain their actual gaps. Quarters with no active approved source remain blank. An isolated black diamond, when available, is the latest target NTM/LTM revenue consensus standardized against the displayed target history and positioned four quarters after the latest actual. Organic and quarterly-YoY targets label this explicitly as a revenue-consensus proxy. The marker is display-only and is excluded from scoring. Expand each source diagnostic to inspect every approved company and metric.

Group

sources n=4 / companies n=4Downstream demand=3, Upstream input=1minimum composite breadth 1/4active sources at latest target 4/4latest target actual +2.8%latest target z -1.0NTM consensus +7.2%; z +0.4latest composite z -0.2 at 26 Q1partial-coverage observations 12target/composite overlap 35 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite zTarget NTM revenue proxyTarget NTM revenue proxy-2.0-0.70.51.83.1Target NTM revenue proxy: +7.2%; z +0.39; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; reported_revenue_proxy_for_organic_growth_target; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q16 Q118 Q220 Q322 Q324 Q427 Q1
Composite zComposite zUnilever · Beauty & Wellbeing | Volume (%)UnileverBeauty & Wellbeing | Volu…BASF · Volume (%)BASFVolume (%)Mondelez · Segment revenue: North AmericaMondelezSegment revenue: North Am…Estee Lauder Companies · Segment revenue: OtherEstee Lauder CompaniesSegment revenue: Other-3.8-2.1-0.41.43.117 Q219 Q120 Q422 Q324 Q226 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group downstream_demand Unilever Beauty & Wellbeing | Volume (%) ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 24 direct_operational_rate 25 0 25 ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.481111 0.220690 True
Group downstream_demand Estee Lauder Companies Segment revenue: Other EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 35 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.364335 0.320472 True
Group upstream_input BASF Volume (%) BAS GY EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 23 direct_operational_rate 24 0 24 BAS GY EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.532561 0.044461 False
Group downstream_demand Mondelez Segment revenue: North America MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 35 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.446296 0.204790 True

Fragrance & Beauty

sources n=3 / companies n=3Downstream demand=2, Upstream input=1minimum composite breadth 1/3active sources at latest target 3/3latest target actual +5.9%latest target z -0.3NTM consensus +10.6%; z +0.9latest composite z -0.1 at 26 Q1partial-coverage observations 12target/composite overlap 35 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite zTarget NTM revenue proxyTarget NTM revenue proxy-2.8-1.40.01.42.8Target NTM revenue proxy: +10.6%; z +0.90; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; reported_revenue_proxy_for_organic_growth_target; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q16 Q118 Q220 Q322 Q324 Q427 Q1
Composite zComposite zUnilever · Beauty & Wellbeing | Volume (%)UnileverBeauty & Wellbeing | Volu…BASF · Volume (%)BASFVolume (%)Estee Lauder Companies · Segment revenue: OtherEstee Lauder CompaniesSegment revenue: Other-3.8-2.1-0.41.33.017 Q219 Q120 Q422 Q324 Q226 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Fragrance & Beauty downstream_demand Unilever Beauty & Wellbeing | Volume (%) ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 24 direct_operational_rate 25 0 25 ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.546580 0.040018 False
Fragrance & Beauty downstream_demand Estee Lauder Companies Segment revenue: Other EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 35 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.506587 0.039914 False
Fragrance & Beauty upstream_input BASF Volume (%) BAS GY EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 23 direct_operational_rate 24 0 24 BAS GY EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.453555 0.109547 True

Fragrance Ingredients & Active Beauty

sources n=1 / companies n=1Upstream input=1single-source composite 1/1 (lower breadth)active sources at latest target 1/1latest target actual -5.9%latest target z -1.5NTM consensus +2.3%; z -0.4latest composite z -1.9 at 26 Q1partial-coverage observations 0target/composite overlap 24 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite zTarget NTM revenue proxyTarget NTM revenue proxy-2.5-1.20.11.42.7Target NTM revenue proxy: +2.3%; z -0.39; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; reported_revenue_proxy_for_organic_growth_target; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q16 Q118 Q220 Q322 Q324 Q427 Q1
Composite zComposite zBASF · Nutrition & Care — Capital ExpenditureBASFNutrition & Care · Capita…-2.3-1.10.11.32.520 Q121 Q222 Q323 Q324 Q426 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Fragrance Ingredients & Active Beauty upstream_input BASF Nutrition & Care — Capital Expenditure BAS GY EQUITY is_capex_as_reported company_modl_segment 24 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth 25 0 25 BAS GY EQUITY is_capex_as_reported relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_level_growth 0.523801 0.025838 False

Taste & Wellbeing

sources n=2 / companies n=2Downstream demand=2minimum composite breadth 1/2active sources at latest target 1/2latest target actual -0.4%latest target z -1.6NTM consensus +3.8%; z -0.2latest composite z -0.5 at 26 Q1partial-coverage observations 1target/composite overlap 35 quarters

Target zTarget zSame-period composite zSame-period composite zTarget NTM revenue proxyTarget NTM revenue proxy-2.7-1.30.11.52.9Target NTM revenue proxy: +3.8%; z -0.25; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; reported_revenue_proxy_for_organic_growth_target; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q16 Q118 Q220 Q322 Q324 Q427 Q1
Composite zComposite zMondelez · Segment revenue: North AmericaMondelezSegment revenue: North Am…Nestle · ConfectionaryNestleConfectionary-2.6-1.20.21.63.017 Q219 Q120 Q422 Q324 Q226 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method same_q_corr fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Taste & Wellbeing downstream_demand Nestle Confectionary NESN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 34 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 35 0 35 NESN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.364297 0.167653 True
Taste & Wellbeing downstream_demand Mondelez Segment revenue: North America MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 35 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.482100 0.050268 False

Run Metadata Back to top

Approval policyas_led_auto_approve_v3_exact_rescore
Composite methodequal-weight mean of available individually standardized sources; minimum one active source; 1/1 composites shown as lower breadth
Coverage displayfilled markers for full coverage; open markers for valid partial coverage; valid composites retained through missing target quarters; primary lines connect between observed points without inserting observations or markers
Timingsame period; no lead shifting
Relationship rows10
Companies5