Givaudan V3 Leading Indicators Dashboard

Generated: 2026-07-23

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V3 forecast scope: AS-led forecast-qualified relationships only. Each candidate leads its Givaudan target by one to four quarters and passed the locked rolling-origin qualification gates.

Sections
Lead-Aligned Composite ChartsOrganic Growth TargetsQuarterly YoY Relationship TargetsForecast Source CatalogRun Metadata

Lead-Aligned Composite Charts Back to top

Forecast-qualified V3 sources are shifted forward by their selected empirical +1Q..+4Q lead to the target quarter they predict, then inverse relationships are sign-aligned before the signal is averaged. The signal is the equal-weight mean of available approved sources and requires at least one active source. Filled markers denote full approved-source coverage and open markers denote valid partial coverage. Every dashed post-target point is labelled active n / approved n. A one-source forward point is retained but overlaid with an amber marker and explicitly labelled as a single-source forward signal, not diversified composite evidence. The right chart shows every approved source that actually contributes to at least one forward point rather than a historical-correlation top-five subset. A valid aggregate remains visible inside the target-history window when the target quarter is missing. Primary target and aggregate paths connect between observed points across missing spans without adding observation markers or filling data; raw source diagnostics retain their actual gaps. Quarters with no active approved source remain blank. The underlying forward observations were available one to four quarters earlier. Raw, uninverted source lines remain visible and inverse rows are labelled in the charts and diagnostic tables. Organic and reported target bases are separated below because they are distinct target series. The isolated black diamond is Bloomberg target NTM/LTM revenue consensus, standardized against the displayed target history and positioned at latest actual +4Q; it is display-only and never enters the relationship signal. These are relationship indicators, not the full Givaudan earnings model.

Organic Growth Targets Back to top

Governed organic-growth target vectors and their forecast-qualified leading relationships.

Positive-lead historical indicator view for the organic growth basis.

Group — Organic Growth

strict n=7lead mix +1Q=1, +2Q=1, +3Q=2, +4Q=3minimum aggregate breadth 1/7active sources at latest target 7/7forward-active source lines shown 7/7latest aligned signal z -0.6 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.6 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 4Qdashed forward signal z -0.0 at 27 Q1; active sources 3/7 (partial coverage)NTM consensus +7.2%; z +0.4aggregate observations 39 / target overlap 34

Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalTarget NTM revenue proxyTarget NTM revenue proxy-2.0-0.70.51.83.17/76/75/73/7Target NTM revenue proxy: +7.2%; z +0.39; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; reported_revenue_proxy_for_organic_growth_target; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q16 Q118 Q220 Q322 Q324 Q427 Q1
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zTotalEnergies · +4Q · inverseTotalEnergies+4Q · inverseBASF · +4Q · inverseBASF+4Q · inverseNestle · +4Q · inverseNestle+4Q · inverseEstee Lauder Companies · +3Q · positiveEstee Lauder Companies+3Q · positiveL'Oreal · +3Q · inverseL'Oreal+3Q · inverseUnilever · +2Q · positiveUnilever+2Q · positiveMondelez · +1Q · inverseMondelez+1Q · inverse-3.3-1.50.21.93.77/76/75/73/717 Q319 Q321 Q223 Q225 Q127 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Care Chemicals BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 24 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 29 0 29 BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.671420 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.271305 1.0 0.003280 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Nestle Real Internal Growth (%) NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 31 direct_operational_rate 36 0 36 NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate -0.614791 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.272694 1.0 0.004096 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Mondelez Revenue — Gum & Candy — Europe MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 26 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 28 0 28 MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.796932 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.526280 1.0 0.000219 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Unilever Volume Growth (%) ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 33 direct_operational_rate 36 0 36 ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.694929 2 positive 0.406519 1.0 0.000490 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Estee Lauder Companies Other — Revenue EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 24 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 28 0 28 EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.422061 3 positive 0.135925 1.0 0.133557 True
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input TotalEnergies Natural Gas (MMCF/D) TTE FP EQUITY gas_production_world_mmcf_dy company_reported_metric 31 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume 36 0 36 TTE FP EQUITY gas_production_world_mmcf_dy relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume -0.794141 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.372150 1.0 0.000006 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand L'Oreal Business Segment Revenue — Consumer Products OR FP EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 24 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 28 0 28 OR FP EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.353851 3 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.106359 1.0 0.229037 True

Fragrance & Beauty — Organic Growth

strict n=4lead mix +1Q=1, +2Q=2, +4Q=1minimum aggregate breadth 1/4active sources at latest target 4/4forward-active source lines shown 4/4latest aligned signal z +0.3 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z +0.3 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 4Qdashed forward signal z 0.2 at 27 Q1; active sources 1/4 (partial coverage)NTM consensus +10.6%; z +0.9aggregate observations 39 / target overlap 34

Low-breadth forward warning: 26 Q4 1/4 (Estee Lauder Companies); 27 Q1 1/4 (Estee Lauder Companies). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalTarget NTM revenue proxyTarget NTM revenue proxy-2.8-1.40.01.42.84/43/41/41/4Target NTM revenue proxy: +10.6%; z +0.90; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; reported_revenue_proxy_for_organic_growth_target; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q16 Q118 Q220 Q322 Q324 Q427 Q1
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalEstee Lauder Companies · +4Q · inverseEstee Lauder Companies+4Q · inverseBASF · +2Q · inverseBASF+2Q · inverseInternational Flavors & Fragrances · +2Q · inverseInternational Flavors & F…+2Q · inverseUnilever · +1Q · positiveUnilever+1Q · positive-2.5-1.00.52.03.54/43/41/41/417 Q319 Q321 Q223 Q225 Q127 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Fragrance & Beauty — Organic Growth industry_growth International Flavors & Fragrances Segment revenue: Greater Asia IFF UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 30 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 33 0 33 IFF UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.474533 2 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.021067 1.0 0.038308 False
Fragrance & Beauty — Organic Growth upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Care Chemicals BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 26 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 29 0 29 BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.499684 2 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.133575 1.0 0.074764 False
Fragrance & Beauty — Organic Growth downstream_demand Unilever Volume Growth (%) ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 34 direct_operational_rate 36 0 36 ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.552161 1 positive 0.115071 1.0 0.059647 False
Fragrance & Beauty — Organic Growth downstream_demand Estee Lauder Companies Segment revenue: Skin Care EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 31 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.524468 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.020531 1.0 0.073015 False

Fragrance Ingredients & Active Beauty — Organic Growth

strict n=1lead mix +1Q=1single-source leading signal 1/1 (lower breadth)active sources at latest target 1/1forward-active source lines shown 1/1latest aligned signal z -0.1 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.1 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 1Qdashed forward signal z -0.1 at 26 Q2; active sources 1/1 (full coverage)NTM consensus +2.3%; z -0.4aggregate observations 24 / target overlap 22

Low-breadth forward warning: 26 Q2 1/1 (BASF). Amber markers are single-source forward signals, not diversified composite evidence.
Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalTarget NTM revenue proxyTarget NTM revenue proxy-2.5-1.20.21.52.81/1Target NTM revenue proxy: +2.3%; z -0.39; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; reported_revenue_proxy_for_organic_growth_target; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q16 Q118 Q220 Q322 Q324 Q427 Q1
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zSingle-source forward signalSingle-source forward signalBASF · +1Q · positiveBASF+1Q · positive-1.9-0.70.41.62.81/120 Q221 Q322 Q423 Q425 Q126 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Fragrance Ingredients & Active Beauty — Organic Growth upstream_input BASF Volume (%) BAS GY EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 22 direct_operational_rate 24 0 24 BAS GY EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.482436 1 positive 0.132163 0.5 0.294105 True

Taste & Wellbeing — Organic Growth

strict n=2lead mix +4Q=2minimum aggregate breadth 1/2active sources at latest target 2/2forward-active source lines shown 2/2latest aligned signal z -0.2 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.2 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 4Qdashed forward signal z 0.6 at 27 Q1; active sources 2/2 (full coverage)NTM consensus +3.8%; z -0.2aggregate observations 36 / target overlap 31

Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalTarget NTM revenue proxyTarget NTM revenue proxy-2.7-1.30.11.52.92/22/22/22/2Target NTM revenue proxy: +3.8%; z -0.25; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; reported_revenue_proxy_for_organic_growth_target; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q16 Q118 Q220 Q322 Q324 Q427 Q1
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zMondelez · +4Q · positiveMondelez+4Q · positiveNestle · +4Q · inverseNestle+4Q · inverse-2.6-1.3-0.01.32.62/22/22/22/218 Q220 Q121 Q423 Q325 Q227 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Taste & Wellbeing — Organic Growth downstream_demand Mondelez Segment revenue: Cheese & Grocery MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 31 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.684411 4 positive 0.327811 0.75 0.002413 False
Taste & Wellbeing — Organic Growth downstream_demand Nestle Real Internal Growth (%) NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 31 direct_operational_rate 36 0 36 NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate -0.574709 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.161991 0.75 0.012359 False

Quarterly YoY Relationship Targets Back to top

Quarter-versus-prior-year-quarter target vectors and their forecast-qualified leading relationships. This basis is separate from the established V2 rolling-4Q view.

Positive-lead historical indicator view for the quarterly yoy relationship basis.

Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship

strict n=7lead mix +1Q=3, +4Q=4minimum aggregate breadth 1/7active sources at latest target 7/7forward-active source lines shown 7/7latest aligned signal z -0.5 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.5 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 4Qdashed forward signal z 0.5 at 27 Q1; active sources 4/7 (partial coverage)NTM consensus +7.2%; z +0.3aggregate observations 39 / target overlap 34

Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalTarget NTM/LTM consensusTarget NTM/LTM consensus-2.4-1.20.01.22.47/74/73/74/7Target NTM/LTM consensus: +7.2%; z +0.32; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; ntm_ltm_aggregate_proxy_for_quarterly_yoy; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q17 Q219 Q221 Q223 Q125 Q127 Q1
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zEstee Lauder Companies · +4Q · positiveEstee Lauder Companies+4Q · positiveProcter & Gamble · +4Q · positiveProcter & Gamble+4Q · positiveUnilever · +4Q · inverseUnilever+4Q · inverseSymrise · +4Q · inverseSymrise+4Q · inverseTotalEnergies · +1Q · positiveTotalEnergies+1Q · positiveMondelez · +1Q · inverseMondelez+1Q · inverseNestle · +1Q · positiveNestle+1Q · positive-2.9-1.40.11.63.17/74/73/74/717 Q319 Q321 Q223 Q225 Q127 Q1
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Procter & Gamble Beauty — Revenue PG UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 23 0.776105 4 positive 0.537352 0.571429 0.000780 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Estee Lauder Companies Asia/Pacific — Revenue EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 23 0.785835 4 positive 0.736168 0.857143 0.000780 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Unilever Americas — North America — Revenue ULVR LN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 23 -0.700663 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.366003 0.571429 0.002260 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship upstream_input TotalEnergies Europe & Central Asia TTE FP EQUITY total_production_world_mboe_dy company_modl_segment 34 0.727924 1 positive 0.390106 0.583333 0.000032 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Mondelez Developed Markets MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 34 -0.712914 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.443144 0.666667 0.000411 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Nestle Powdered & Liquid Beverages — Revenue NESN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 26 0.499107 1 positive 0.027073 0.500000 0.021988 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship industry_growth Symrise Segment revenue: North America SY1 GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 30 -0.581184 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.246385 0.583333 0.003029 False

Fragrance & Beauty — Quarterly YoY Relationship

strict n=0latest target z 1.1NTM consensus +10.6%; z +0.4target observations 35

Target zTarget zTarget NTM/LTM consensusTarget NTM/LTM consensus-2.8-1.6-0.40.81.9Target NTM/LTM consensus: +10.6%; z +0.40; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; ntm_ltm_aggregate_proxy_for_quarterly_yoy; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q17 Q219 Q221 Q223 Q125 Q127 Q1
No candidate passed the +1Q..+4Q forecast qualification and sensitivity gates for this target.
Segment source diagnostics
No forecast-qualified relationship rows. The target remains visible because its direct target vector is score-ready.

Taste & Wellbeing — Quarterly YoY Relationship

strict n=2lead mix +1Q=2minimum aggregate breadth 1/2active sources at latest target 2/2forward-active source lines shown 2/2latest aligned signal z -0.6 at 26 Q1last target-overlap z -0.6 at 26 Q1forward coverage beyond latest target 1Qdashed forward signal z -0.1 at 26 Q2; active sources 2/2 (full coverage)NTM consensus +3.8%; z -0.1aggregate observations 36 / target overlap 34

Target zTarget zSign-aligned leading signalSign-aligned leading signalForward leading signalForward leading signalTarget NTM/LTM consensusTarget NTM/LTM consensus-2.6-1.4-0.11.12.42/2Target NTM/LTM consensus: +3.8%; z -0.07; target quarter 27 Q1; as of 2026-07-13; ntm_ltm_aggregate_proxy_for_quarterly_yoy; LTM bbg_ltm_usd_actual, age 0Q17 Q219 Q221 Q223 Q125 Q127 Q1
Composite zComposite zForward composite zForward composite zMondelez · +1Q · inverseMondelez+1Q · inverseNestle · +1Q · positiveNestle+1Q · positive-2.6-1.20.21.62.92/217 Q319 Q221 Q122 Q424 Q326 Q2
Segment source diagnostics
target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Taste & Wellbeing — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Mondelez Developed Markets MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 34 -0.665571 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.339370 0.583333 0.000647 False
Taste & Wellbeing — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Nestle Real Internal Growth (%) NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 34 0.572200 1 positive 0.169831 0.666667 0.003717 False

Forecast Source Catalog Back to top

Organic Growth Target Sources

target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs growth_basis series_obs organic_obs fallback_obs fallback_universe fallback_field fallback_method selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Taste & Wellbeing — Organic Growth downstream_demand Mondelez Segment revenue: Cheese & Grocery MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 31 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.684411 4 positive 0.327811 0.75 0.002413 False
Fragrance & Beauty — Organic Growth industry_growth International Flavors & Fragrances Segment revenue: Greater Asia IFF UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 30 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 33 0 33 IFF UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.474533 2 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.021067 1.00 0.038308 False
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Care Chemicals BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 24 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 29 0 29 BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.671420 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.271305 1.00 0.003280 False
Fragrance & Beauty — Organic Growth upstream_input BASF Segment revenue: Care Chemicals BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 26 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 29 0 29 BAS GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.499684 2 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.133575 1.00 0.074764 False
Taste & Wellbeing — Organic Growth downstream_demand Nestle Real Internal Growth (%) NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 31 direct_operational_rate 36 0 36 NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate -0.574709 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.161991 0.75 0.012359 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Nestle Real Internal Growth (%) NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 31 direct_operational_rate 36 0 36 NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate -0.614791 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.272694 1.00 0.004096 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Mondelez Revenue — Gum & Candy — Europe MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 26 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 28 0 28 MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.796932 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.526280 1.00 0.000219 False
Fragrance & Beauty — Organic Growth downstream_demand Unilever Volume Growth (%) ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 34 direct_operational_rate 36 0 36 ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.552161 1 positive 0.115071 1.00 0.059647 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Unilever Volume Growth (%) ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 33 direct_operational_rate 36 0 36 ULVR LN EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.694929 2 positive 0.406519 1.00 0.000490 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand Estee Lauder Companies Other — Revenue EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 24 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 28 0 28 EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 0.422061 3 positive 0.135925 1.00 0.133557 True
Group — Organic Growth upstream_input TotalEnergies Natural Gas (MMCF/D) TTE FP EQUITY gas_production_world_mmcf_dy company_reported_metric 31 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume 36 0 36 TTE FP EQUITY gas_production_world_mmcf_dy relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_volume -0.794141 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.372150 1.00 0.000006 False
Fragrance Ingredients & Active Beauty — Organic Growth upstream_input BASF Volume (%) BAS GY EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 22 direct_operational_rate 24 0 24 BAS GY EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume direct_operational_rate 0.482436 1 positive 0.132163 0.50 0.294105 True
Fragrance & Beauty — Organic Growth downstream_demand Estee Lauder Companies Segment revenue: Skin Care EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 31 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 36 0 36 EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.524468 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.020531 1.00 0.073015 False
Group — Organic Growth downstream_demand L'Oreal Business Segment Revenue — Consumer Products OR FP EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 24 relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue 28 0 28 OR FP EQUITY sales_rev_turn relationship_standard_quarterly_yoy_revenue -0.353851 3 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.106359 1.00 0.229037 True

Quarterly YoY Relationship Target Sources

target bucket company segment_or_metric universe field source_type corr_obs selected_lead_corr selected_lead_q signal_direction mae_improvement directional_accuracy fdr_q_diagnostic fdr_above_10pct_reference
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Procter & Gamble Beauty — Revenue PG UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 23 0.776105 4 positive 0.537352 0.571429 0.000780 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Estee Lauder Companies Asia/Pacific — Revenue EL UN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 23 0.785835 4 positive 0.736168 0.857143 0.000780 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Unilever Americas — North America — Revenue ULVR LN EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 23 -0.700663 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.366003 0.571429 0.002260 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship upstream_input TotalEnergies Europe & Central Asia TTE FP EQUITY total_production_world_mboe_dy company_modl_segment 34 0.727924 1 positive 0.390106 0.583333 0.000032 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Mondelez Developed Markets MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 34 -0.712914 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.443144 0.666667 0.000411 False
Taste & Wellbeing — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Mondelez Developed Markets MDLZ UW EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 34 -0.665571 1 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.339370 0.583333 0.000647 False
Taste & Wellbeing — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Nestle Real Internal Growth (%) NESN SE EQUITY is_pct_sales_change_volume company_modl_segment 34 0.572200 1 positive 0.169831 0.666667 0.003717 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship downstream_demand Nestle Powdered & Liquid Beverages — Revenue NESN SE EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 26 0.499107 1 positive 0.027073 0.500000 0.021988 False
Group Revenue — Quarterly YoY Relationship industry_growth Symrise Segment revenue: North America SY1 GY EQUITY sales_rev_turn company_modl_segment 30 -0.581184 4 inverse; sign-adjusted in composite 0.246385 0.583333 0.003029 False

Run Metadata Back to top

Approved relationships23
Approved companies10
Composite methodone metric per company-target; selected-lead sign alignment; equal-weight mean of available approved companies; minimum one active source; one-source forward points retained but not presented as diversified composite evidence
Coverage displayfilled markers for full coverage; open markers for valid partial coverage; every post-target aggregate observation dashed and labelled active n / approved n; one-source points overlaid in amber with a visible warning
Raw source displayall sources active in at least one forward period; retained uninverted and explicitly labelled when inverse
Target-basis splitOrganic Growth: 4 score-ready targets / 4 with qualified leads / 14 relationships; Quarterly YoY Relationship: 3 score-ready targets / 2 with qualified leads / 9 relationships