LME aluminum prices, objective curve states, and explicitly contrarian timespread signals.
The primary curve is currently BACKWARDATION, mapped to BEARISH under the contrarian framework. Its magnitude exceeds 45% of earlier backwardation observations. The signal describes a mean-reversion view; the curve state itself describes current market structure.
This view compares current and longer-dated aluminum prices on the same USD-per-metric-tonne basis.
Choose whether to compare the 12-month aluminum price with the 24-, 36-, or 48-month point. The upper chart shows contango or backwardation; the lower chart shows how strong that curve shape is compared with its own history.
The full-history charts are repeated here so all available horizons remain visible in printed or non-interactive copies.
Primary decision: Strict CMT12/CMT24 passed the trading-grid and bracket-width gates and is the primary calendar-tenor spread.
Native LME Cash, 3M, 15M, and 27M series use official Bloomberg settlement observations. The 12M, 24M, 36M, and 48M anchors are constructed only from dated LME monthly prompt contracts that bracket each target date.
Strict CMT: linear interpolation between the nearest valid lower and upper prompt dates. No nearest-contract or relaxed fallback is included. Every row retains both contracts, their expiries, effective months forward, bracket width, target distance, and interpolation weights.
Spread formulas: absolute spread = near minus far; percent spread = near divided by far minus one; log spread = log(near divided by far). Positive percent spreads are backwardation and negative spreads are contango.
Curve state: the log spread is annualized by the distance between the near and far tenors so the flat test is comparable across horizons. Annualized slopes below -0.25% are contango, slopes above +0.25% are backwardation, and readings inside that band are flat. Positive spreads mean the near price exceeds the far price.
Conditional severity: contango magnitude is ranked only against earlier contango observations, while backwardation magnitude is ranked only against earlier backwardation observations. Rankings are expanding and walk-forward. The severity line begins after 60 observations in that state.
Contrarian signal: mathematically flat readings and the mildest 20% within either non-flat state map to NEUTRAL. The middle 60% maps contango to BULLISH and backwardation to BEARISH. The strongest 20% maps deep contango to BULLISH+ and strong backwardation to BEARISH+. This is a mean-reversion interpretation, not an outright-price forecast.
Signed spread rank: the expanding percentile of the log spread against all prior observations remains in the processed CSV as a diagnostic, but it no longer determines the regime map because Aluminum spends substantially more time in contango than backwardation.
Calendar-row, weekday, and actual LME trading-grid coverage are reported separately. Strict CMT must cover at least 95% of the observed LME 3M trading grid and keep prompt brackets within two months to become the primary series.
| series | calendar_row_coverage | business_day_coverage | trading_grid_coverage | strict_method_share | first_valid_date | latest_valid_date | latest_age_business_days | longest_repeated_price_run | large_daily_move_count | median_bracket_width_months | max_bracket_width_months | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LME Cash | 0.692 | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ok | |||
| LME 3M | 0.692 | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | ok | |||
| LME 15M | 0.692 | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | ok | |||
| LME 27M | 0.692 | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ok | |||
| CMT12 | 0.692 | 0.969 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.920 | 1.150 | ok |
| CMT24 | 0.692 | 0.969 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.920 | 1.150 | ok |
| CMT36 | 0.692 | 0.969 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.920 | 1.150 | ok |
| CMT48 | 0.692 | 0.969 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.920 | 1.150 | ok |
The primary 12M/24M spread compares one-year and two-year aluminum prices. The 12M/36M and 12M/48M diagnostics show progressively longer forward-curve horizons. The native 3M/15M spread remains the fallback because both legs are published fixed-tenor LME series.
| candidate_spread | business_day_coverage | trading_grid_coverage | first_valid_date | latest_date | latest_simple_percent_spread | latest_recursive_percentile | latest_curve_state | latest_state_severity_percentile | latest_contrarian_signal | observation_count | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LME_CASH/LME_3M | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 0.955 | 0.973 | backwardation | 0.793 | BEARISH | 4190 | ok |
| LME_3M/LME_15M | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 2.112 | 0.946 | backwardation | 0.460 | BEARISH | 4190 | ok |
| LME_3M/LME_27M | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 4.310 | 0.939 | backwardation | 0.417 | BEARISH | 4190 | ok |
| CMT12/CMT24_STRICT | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 2.594 | 0.939 | backwardation | 0.450 | BEARISH | 4190 | ok |
| CMT12/CMT36_STRICT | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 3.478 | 0.931 | backwardation | 0.372 | BEARISH | 4190 | ok |
| CMT12/CMT48_STRICT | 0.969 | 1.000 | 2010-01-04 | 2026-08-03 | 3.829 | 0.925 | backwardation | 0.315 | BEARISH | 4190 | ok |
The overlap audit quantifies how much the strict 12M/24M calendar-tenor spread differs from the native 3M/15M fallback over shared history.
| comparison | overlap_observations | mean_abs_percent_spread_difference | mean_abs_log_spread_difference | log_spread_correlation | regime_disagreement_rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMT12/CMT24_STRICT vs LME_3M/LME_15M | 4190 | 0.756 | 0.008 | 0.955 | 0.237 |