Forecast Level, mb/d
Next-Year 1Y Growth, %
Next-Year 1Y Growth, mb/d
Next-Year 2Y Annualized Growth, %
Next-Year 2Y Annualized Growth, mb/d
Next-Year 3m Revision, mb/d
Next-Year 3m Revision, pp
Next-Year 6m Revision, mb/d
Next-Year 6m Revision, pp
Next-Year 12m Rolling Change, mb/d
Next-Year 12m Rolling Change, pp
Coverage
Latest Snapshot
QA Flags
Methodology
This dashboard tracks monthly agency forecast vintages for oil supply, demand, and implied balance. Each observation is keyed by agency, vintage month, target year, metric, and region or bucket.
Views
Horizon Curve
One agency at a time. FY0 is the current calendar year in each vintage; FY1 is the next calendar year. This is the main view for tracking how next-year expectations change through time.
Forecast Horizon
Compares agencies for a single rolling horizon, such as FY1 next-year forecasts.
Fixed Target Year
Fixes the target calendar year, such as 2027, and shows how forecasts for that year were revised across vintages.
Agency Monitor
Separate tab for FY1 agency comparison. Supply combines direct World supply rows with OPEC's harmonized call-on-DoC-equivalent requirement; demand uses direct World demand rows. The OPEC series is estimated before May 2024 and equals the published call-on-DoC from May 2024 onward. The implied surplus/deficit metric is derived only where direct World supply and direct World demand are both available for the same agency, vintage, and target year.
Key Formulas
Source Coverage
Metrics
Current Limitations
- EIA STEO history is imported from public archive Excel workbooks.
- IEA OMR values are public overview extractions where annual global supply or demand levels are visible; this is not a full subscription OMR table pull.
- OPEC MOMR uses public appendix Excel files where downloadable assets resolve or are already cached.
- Published MOMR (a) - (b) changed from a call-on-OPEC perimeter to a call-on-DoC perimeter in May 2024. Both published series are retained separately.
- The harmonized pre-May series estimates non-OPEC DoC crude from same-vintage member liquids and a calibrated crude share. It is suitable for trend analysis but is not an official OPEC restatement.
- Agency Monitor implied surplus/deficit uses direct World supply less demand for EIA and IEA. OPEC appears separately as an inverted call-on-DoC requirement proxy, not an actual supply-demand balance forecast.
- QA flags identify large changes that should be checked against source rows before interpretation.
- The agency average is a top-down consensus proxy, not an estimate of truth.
Generated . Database: . Workbook: .